Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 25, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Energy & Geopolitics

Oil futures dropped below $100 on optimism about U.S.-Iran talks, with Brent crude falling over 5% as investors weighed the prospect of renewed Strait of Hormuz shipments. The dollar extended its slide on deal hopes, while European gas prices slid 5% and Asian LNG markets saw the first departure of a tanker bound for India since the conflict began. A supertanker carrying Iraqi crude exited the Persian Gulf, and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. quietly slipped more tankers through the strait, signaling de-escalation. Yet, without a formal agreement, the reopening remains uncertain, and moving the estimated 1,500-ship backlog won't be easy. The Swiss trader facilitated Iraqi oil shipments through the strait earlier in the crisis, underscoring the logistical complexities involved.

Central Bank Divergence

The European Central Bank confronts sticky inflation as President Christine Lagarde signaled an upward revision to its June outlook, while Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras argued a July hike may be inevitable to preserve credibility. Outgoing member François Villeroy de Galhau found no second-round effects from energy spikes yet, but Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala urged an immediate rate cut despite growing inflation risks. In the U.S., BlackRock's Vishal Khandelwal saw sufficient factors to justify a Fed rate cut under new chair Kevin Warsh, supporting the notion of a potential September easing, which helped lift global bond yields before the Iran deal optimism took hold.

AI & Technology Momentum

Artificial intelligence continued its market rampage, powering the best run for global momentum stocks on record despite Middle East war concerns. Venture capitalist John Doerr called AI the biggest tech tsunami, while Meta and Google models had guardrails stripped in minutes, highlighting safety challenges. The fever spread to Japanese retail traders, doubling average daily trading volume, and AI forced McKinsey to rethink pricing. Pope Leo issued a 42,300-word warning on AI risks, seeking to temper the frenzy. Meanwhile, AI agents managed a bakery's growth and expanded to Main Street, showing practical adoption beyond Big Tech.

Market Structure & Regulation

Africa's largest exchange tightened algo-trading rules to curb disruptive errors, while Singapore ordered banks to speed up wealthy-client onboarding after money-laundering scandals slowed growth. Turkey's flagship carrier capitalized on Gulf disruptions, aiming for top spot as Istanbul's hub stayed fully operational. In payments, CDP moved to raise its Nexi stake after CVC weighed a €9bn bid, and India's rupee climbed on oil relief and central bank comments about undervaluation. Sri Lanka's currency was set to recover by year-end as oil prices eased, according to BMI.

Corporate Moves & Capital Markets

SoftBank tapped retail investors again with a ¥260 billion ($1.6 yen bond sale, two months after a similar offering. Spanish utility Cox took a 20% bridge loan for its $4.2 billion Mexico acquisition, using shares as collateral. China's crackdown on cross-border trading triggered a $32 billion asset hit in Hong Kong and wiped $1.7 billion from a brokerage tycoon's fortune in a day. In India, rapid-commerce firm Zepto planned a June IPO targeting up to $1 billion, while Amazon raced startups with micro-warehouses for minute grocery deliveries.

Earnings & Valuations

Italian stocks hit a 26-year record on energy and chip rallies, while South Africa's Pick n Pay slumped after delaying targets. Australia's LNG producers faced tighter export rules, and China's solar installations fell for a fourth month on weak domestic demand. In the U.S., the AI rally drove M&A to records, with unloved companies turning sexy for private equity. The classical music world grappled with AI's threat to 'skill death,' even as composers historically experimented with technology.

Fixed Income & Currencies

Japanese government bonds faced homegrown downside risks despite oil's retreat, with risk compensation rising fastest among major markets since the U.S.-Iran war began. U.S. Treasury yields dropped as talks progressed, and the dollar slipped on deal optimism. Gold rose on U.S.-Iran optimism and a weaker dollar, while swap rates in India hit multi-year highs, driving debt fund managers into return-boosting trades.

Geopolitical Tensions & Supply Chains

The Iran war already roiled Asian manufacturing via a naphtha shortage from the Hormuz blockade, disrupting goods in Japan and South Korea. Congo's Ebola outbreak spread across provinces, prompting flight suspensions and cross-border warnings, while the U.S. denied the soccer team entry over outbreak fears. In the South China Sea, the U.S. warned Japan of Tomahawk delays due to depleted Pentagon stocks from the Middle East campaign.

Corporate Governance & Ethics

A Brooklyn co-op descended into dysfunction ahead of an Israel boycott vote, while HUD moved to limit assistance animals for disabled tenants. The acting U.S. comptroller purged ranks and eased enforcement, benefiting crypto and prediction markets where Trump's family is invested. In media, a Maine Senate candidate's ad attacking Red Sox ownership was pulled by NESN, citing IP rights, and a Times investigation revealed AI-driven home-brewed lawsuits flooding court dockets.

Deals & Valuations

The AI boom drew private equity into data centers across Asia-Pacific, with Blackstone arranging a $1.2 billion loan for Air Trunk's Japan expansion. Jardines pivoted with a $2.4bn radiology deal in Australia, its first since a strategic overhaul. In sports media, a FIFA deal gave Fox a World Cup rights bonanza worth hundreds of millions. Meanwhile, the largest IPO ever was planned for SpaceX, aiming to privatize the heavens and make Musk the first trillionaire, though its sheer size could delay trading until afternoon.

Public Health & Environment

A terrible winter for snow pointed to a bleak, drought-stricken summer across the Desert and Mountain West, with towns like Kearny, Arizona, warning of water shortages. In Madagascar, a centuries-old baobab tree slowly died, signaling a fraying ecosystem. On a brighter note, an experimental gene-editing drug showed promise in reducing LDL, with experts calling the results potentially "curative." In Congo, the Ebola response finally took shape months after the outbreak began, even as flights were halted and supplies ran low.