Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 29, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Global Markets and Geopolitics: Oil, Currency, and Central Banks

The intersection of geopolitical tensions and central bank policy drove market action over the past three days, with the Japanese yen weakening past 160.45 against the dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain steady rates. This pressure on Asian currencies consolidated against the dollar, though potentially weighed down by rising oil prices, as the prospect of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept crude futures mixed but buoyed. The defense secretary confirmed the Iran war cost has reached $25 billion while simultaneously lashing out at lawmakers questioning the conflict, as the US is urged to deploy fuel tankers to the Pacific to shore up energy security.

The ongoing conflict continues to refract through corporate earnings and commodity markets. Japanese factory output fell amid clouded demand, while in China, factory activity surprisingly expanded despite pressures, although global supply chains face disruption, evidenced by BASF raising prices again on plastic additives. Meanwhile, Indian stocks’ April rally masked fragile underpinnings as persistent foreign outflows and higher oil prices pose material risks, further complicating the defense of the nation’s rupee, which faces a tough test as capital inflows stall.

In fixed income, US Treasuries traded rangebound in the run-up to what was expected to be Chairman Jerome Powell’s final meeting, where he warned that prices had not yet peaked. This environment contrasts sharply with credit markets, where JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon cautioned again on risks of a credit downturn, even as primary dealers boosted their Treasury holdings to the highest level since 2007 following regulatory shifts under the Trump administration. In the UK, a selloff in government bonds pushed the 10-year yield back toward 5% ahead of the Bank of England meeting, driven by oil prices and political risks.

Technology Sector Earnings and AI Spending Spree

The technology sector reported massive quarterly figures, driven almost entirely by artificial intelligence capital expenditures, though investor focus remains fixed on future returns. Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta collectively reported over $130 billion in quarterly capital spending on AI data centers, with Meta posting its largest quarterly revenue jump in history while simultaneously projecting even higher spending for the year. Samsung’s net profit soared nearly sixfold in the first quarter, benefiting from record earnings in its core semiconductor business due to AI demand, yet testing equipment maker Advantest Corp. saw its stock drop as much as 6.9% after withholding a full-year outlook, citing tight capacity.

The geopolitical split in technology deepened as Beijing forced Meta to unwind a deal with a Chinese AI start-up, escalating the fight over advanced technology, even as Google defended its Pentagon AI contract against internal backlash. Further cementing the AI push, SoftBank plans to list its new AI and robotics unit, Roze, in the US as soon as this year, while Qualcomm shares jumped on reports of collaboration with OpenAI on smartphone technology, alongside its entry into the data center market with a hyperscaler partner.

Corporate Dealmaking and Sector Performance

A wave of corporate combination talks and deal activity signals shifting priorities across real estate and energy. Avalon Bay Communities Inc. and Equity Residential are reportedly considering a merger that could reshape the US apartment market, while in the energy sector, BP Plc agreed to a deal with Venezuela to explore offshore gas as the South American nation seeks an energy revival. Meanwhile, the Starwood real estate fund, aimed at retail investors, was forced to halt redemptions from its $22 billion fund, following earlier restrictions on liquidity rights, as its bet on lower interest rates soured.

In corporate finance, banks launched a debt sale exceeding $2 billion for BASF SE’s coatings division, facing a difficult market backdrop, while Societe Generale SA is considering a risk transfer deal tied to over $10.5 billion of loans. Elsewhere, Grupo Mexico struck a deal to merge its power unit with a BlackRock-backed entity, creating a major private power operator, and a SoftBank-tied project is testing investor appetite by offering nearly $1 billion in junk bonds for a data center.

Asia-Pacific Regional Shifts and Regulatory Focus

Economic sentiment in New Zealand turned negative for the first time since 2023 as businesses grapple with rising costs and softening demand linked to the Middle East conflict, prompting a senior minister to urge the US to deploy fuel tankers to the region to back up its security rhetoric. In Australia, the prudential regulator threatened enforcement action against firms with poor cybersecurity controls, while the stock exchange, ASX Ltd., appointed Darren Yip as interim CEO while the search for a permanent replacement continues. Immigration trends are also shifting, with Indians now supplanting the English as Australia’s largest migrant group, a demographic change that adds to political contention.

South Korean internet firm Naver reported weaker first-quarter earnings due to higher operating costs, despite steady growth in its core platform and e-commerce segments, while Hong Kong’s local debt market has surprisingly become a funding hotspot as issuers seek stability. India’s domestic high-speed trading unicorn, Graviton, is expanding into Singapore and London as competition and regulations intensify at home, though local automakers like Maruti Suzuki missed profit estimates due to supply constraints and rising costs.

US Corporate Earnings and Political Undercurrents

Major US corporations released mixed results, with consumer spending showing resilience in certain categories despite macroeconomic uncertainty. The Cheesecake Factory reported higher profit as comparable sales ticked up.6% year-over-year, and Mattel sales accelerated for its Hot Wheels and Uno products, while EBay posted a profit of $512 million driven by an 18% rise in gross merchandise volume. Conversely, Humana saw profits fall due to headwinds from lower Medicare Advantage Star Ratings for 2026, and Pilgrim’s Pride reported a lower bottom line despite higher revenue fueled by resilient chicken demand.

In political maneuvering, House Republicans struggled to pass basic legislation, including efforts to fund homeland security, while the House adopted a budget measure that unlocks $70 billion for immigration enforcement, intended to facilitate a bill to fund ICE and CBP. Meanwhile, the debate over the surveillance law remained in limbo after the House passed a three-year renewal, though the Senate was expected to punt for 45 days before the Friday expiration. In corporate governance, activist Engine Capital urged government contractor KBR to explore a sale amidst its ongoing business split.