Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 26, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions Drive Energy & Metals Markets

Crude benchmarks gained traction as the vital Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for a third month following the stalling of US-Iran peace talks, disrupting global maritime traffic. This disruption is simultaneously driving US energy exports to record highs while causing political headaches for the Trump administration as US motorists skimp at the pump due to elevated petrol prices. In related commodity moves, nickel prices surged to a two-year high as major producer Indonesia tightened mining quotas, exacerbating a global sulfur shortage relevant for battery inputs. Meanwhile, the broader global mining industry faces strain, with diesel and acid supplies tightening due to the ongoing conflict, affecting operations from Australia to the DRC.

Chinese industrial enterprises reported earnings that grew at a faster pace in March, as rebounding producer prices managed to offset cost pressures, even as tax authorities sparked volatility through a sweeping crackdown on metal market invoicing quotas. This internal regulatory action comes as China also tightened approvals for overseas borrowings, causing some firms to scramble for cash with roughly $100 billion in bonds maturing this year. In a move to attract foreign capital, however, Beijing announced it will now allow global investors to trade government bond futures.

Emerging Markets & Asian Equities

Emerging-market equities climbed to a record high, propelled by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and reports that Iran presented a new proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This risk appetite is also seen in frontier markets, where investors are piling back into riskier assets following an initial war-driven selloff. Despite the broader regional gains, Indian technology stocks remain under pressure; earnings from major software exporters reinforced concerns, signaling that the rout in the NSE Nifty IT Index, which slumped to its lowest since June 2023, may continue. On the corporate front, Sun Pharma agreed to an acquisition of Organon for $12 billion, marking one of India's largest outbound deals on record.

Asian currencies mostly edged higher against the dollar as traders digested Middle East developments, though the Thai baht is specifically poised for further depreciation, ranking as one of Asia's worst performers since the conflict began due to its exposure to rising oil costs. In Japan, JGB futures eased slightly as the Bank of Japan commenced its two-day meeting, where policy makers are widely expected to hold rates steady.

Global Corporate Earnings & Sector Moves

Corporate profits across America are reportedly growing despite inflation and war risks, though the results are described as "extremely polarized," suggesting uneven sector performance. This theme is echoed in Asia, where the current earnings week is providing an early look at the war's financial impact. In the energy sector, European major Eni hiked its buyback target after realizing a cash windfall from elevated energy prices. Conversely, oilfield services firm SLB saw profits fall due to widespread operational disruptions across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Wall Street's broader conviction trades are being tested, with high-conviction bets on both AI and the conflict's fallout falling out of favor.

In technology, the AI frenzy continues to lift the wider market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 achieving record closes on the back of a blockbuster sales forecast from Intel. The infrastructure build-out underpinning this boom is fueling debt issuance, as evidenced by investors pushing for higher yields on a $14 billion Oracle-backed data center bond offering, and Hut 8 Corp. preparing an investment-grade sale for a Google-linked facility. In financial services, Nomura shares declined after its quarterly profit missed expectations due to writedowns and a loss registered in Europe.

US Political Events & Regulatory Focus

A shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner sparked pandemonium, though officials confirmed the suspect never breached the ballroom where President Trump and hundreds of others were gathered, leading to renewed calls from the President for his desired ballroom renovation. The political fallout extended to immigration policy, where new guidance instructs officers to view criticism of Israel or participation in pro-Palestinian protests as overwhelmingly negative factors for green card applicants. Separately, budget airlines, including Spirit, are actively lobbying the Trump administration for a $2.5 billion relief package, seeking financial assistance and tax breaks amid ongoing industry pressures.

Deals, Credit, and Private Markets

Private credit funds are facing stress following two major defaults: software maker Medallia and dental provider Affordable Care failed to repay billions owed to lenders like Blackstone and KKR. Despite these headwinds, private capital continues to flow into strategic assets, with AllianzGI securing $270 million for its first close of an infrastructure credit fund focused on the Asia Pacific region. In M&A activity, Israeli conglomerate Sun Pharma agreed to buy Organon for $12 billion, signaling significant outbound activity from India. Elsewhere, Australia's Atlas Arteria Ltd. received a takeover bid from IFM Investors, valuing the toll road operator at $7.4 Billion.

Commodity Supply & Global Logistics

The disruption from the Iran war is impacting specialized agricultural goods, causing pistachio prices to surge, which in turn is spurring South African farmers to boost their output in an attempt to capitalize on the shortage created by the Iranian export disruption. On the logistics front, Brazil is attempting to mitigate the impact of soaring fuel costs by increasing the blend of ethanol in its gasoline supply. In Europe, power prices slumped to their lowest since 2013 as a massive surge in solar generation flooded regional grids.