Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 3, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Conflict and Energy Markets

Global markets spent the past three days reacting to escalating tensions surrounding Iran, which saw oil prices soar past $110 a barrel after President Trump vowed an escalation in the conflict. This surge in crude, which marks the highest level in four years, has translated into severe downstream pain, with UK diesel futures reaching the equivalent of $211 a barrel, nearly double the price of crude, forcing UK motorists to face £2-a-litre diesel prices. European nations are preparing for prolonged disruption; the EU warned of a ‘long-lasting’ energy shock, assessing possibilities including fuel rationing and drawing down strategic reserves, while Japan’s major power retailers temporarily stopped accepting new industrial clients due to fuel market uncertainty. The fallout is global, prompting Canada’s Irving refinery to turn to Newfoundland crude for the first time since 2020, and creating a windfall opportunity for defense contractors whose arsenals are being depleted.

The initial market reaction to the conflict was characterized by risk aversion, with fast-money investors unwinding global equity exposure at the fastest pace in 13 years, and credit investors pulling $11 billion from junk bonds toward safer assets like Treasurys and investment-grade debt. Market sentiment shifted mid-week after President Trump signaled the war would wind down over two to three weeks, causing stocks to rally—the U.S. saw the best one-day index gains in 10 months on what was termed "Hormuz Hope"—and prompting gold to extend its three-day gain. Despite the brief relief rally, the underlying economic threat remains severe, as reflected by the fact that U.S. 10-year Treasuries are poised for their biggest monthly tumble since Trump returned, threatening his administration's goal of lower interest rates. Meanwhile, the conflict is reshaping trade routes; several tankers broadcast Omani ownership as they appeared to enter the Strait of Hormuz via a new route hugging Oman’s coast, avoiding the northern path through Iranian waters.

Corporate Activity and Activism

Activist investing continued to drive corporate restructuring headlines, with Tokyo Steel Manufacturing’s stock surging 21% after Oasis Management Co. disclosed a stake and signaled potential reform proposals. This mirrors the recent success of Nelson Peltz, whose ‘unbelievably pushy’ activism backed the $66 billion carve-out at Unilever, a move that has drawn comparisons to broader shifts in retail investing culture that policymakers are struggling to foster in the UK. In the financial sector, private credit funds are seeing significant investor redemptions, with nearly $14 billion requested for withdrawal in Q1, a trend echoed by Blue Owl Capital Inc., whose fund performance numbers were described as "ugly", leading to concerns about excessive risk-taking in the sector. Separately, in the technology space, SpaceX boosted its IPO valuation target above $2 trillion, positioning it for what could be the largest market debut ever, while in the AI sphere, Microsoft launched a new ‘mid-class’ model as compute limits begin to bite.

Policy Shifts and Regulatory Focus

The Trump administration unveiled significant new trade measures, including imposing up to a 100% tariff on branded drugs, though exemptions are available for companies making manufacturing commitments in the U.S. . This places pressure on global partners, as the UK has already agreed to terms that will result in higher domestic medicine spending in exchange for exemption from these threatened levies. In fixed income monitoring, the CFTC’s top cop warned against insider trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, even as new instruments emerge, such as bond-like notes tied to prediction market outcomes that offer less risk than binary bets. Simultaneously, in the crypto space, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr flagged stablecoin risks related to money laundering as regulatory agencies prepare new rules.

Asia Markets and Economic Signals

Economic data from Asia showed mixed signals, with China’s services activity expanding at a weaker pace in March following the New Year holiday boost, suggesting underlying consumer demand remains sluggish. In contrast, shares of Chinese cross-border payment firms rose after the commerce ministry noted the yuan was being used for tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating non-dollar settlement progress. Japanese corporate behavior also shifted, with firms announcing fewer share buyback programs in the last fiscal year, marking the first decline since 2020, while foreign selling of Japanese stocks hit an 18-month high due to heightened Iran risk. In Indonesia, the government is taking fresh steps to improve stock market transparency by naming several tightly held companies, including Barito Renewables Energy, in an effort to satisfy MSCI criteria.

Political Turmoil and Personnel Changes

Political instability continued across various jurisdictions, most prominently within the orbit of President Trump, who was described as being on a “firing spree” following the dismissal of Attorney General Pam Bondi—whose core failure was reportedly the inability to deliver revenge against Trump’s enemies. Todd Blanche, her deputy, was appointed on an interim basis. Meanwhile, House Speaker Johnson’s tenuous hold on power was evident as he delayed a bill to reopen the Department of Homeland Security amid deep party rifts. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni suddenly appears vulnerable after having maintained seemingly unshakable leadership for over three years. Furthermore, the fallout from geopolitical events is reaching unexpected sectors, as evidenced by the news that Goldman Sachs and Citi advised Paris staff to work from home following security warnings related to a thwarted attack on Bank of America, while an insider trading case involving a former Centerview banker reached a settlement.