Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 2, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Risk & Energy Markets

Global markets continued to grapple with the fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict, which saw Iranian oil trade at a premium to Brent crude for the first time since May 2022, marking a significant reversal from prior sanctions-era discounts. The disruption has caused significant energy price volatility, pushing crude above $100 and prompting Continental Resources to boost output as billionaire Harold Hamm capitalizes on the four-year high in prices. Further complicating supply lines, Russian oil exports plunged following drone strikes on Baltic ports, hitting the lowest weekly shipment rates since the invasion of Ukraine, even as the terminal at Ust-Luga appeared undamaged in satellite assessments. Conversely, the war provided an unexpected boon for resource exporters, with Australia expected to reap a multi-billion dollar windfall in revenues through 2030 from higher coal and gas prices.

As the conflict pressures global supply chains, the United States administration revamped metal and pharmaceutical tariffs, while simultaneously drawing criticism over its spending priorities, with President Trump emphasizing military protection over social programs in budget discussions. Transatlantic tensions rose as Trump rebuked European allies, particularly after Italy refused US warplanes permission to refuel, adding to divisions over the conflict, though the UK is reportedly planning security talks in London to address the Strait of Hormuz. In the aviation sector, Europe currently expects sufficient jet fuel supplies for April, but that situation could deteriorate in May, while in the US, soaring gasoline prices—hitting a key psychological threshold of $4 a gallon—increased pressure on the administration to seek an end to the war.

Fixed Income & Credit Turmoil

Fixed income markets showed signs of stress, with US investment-grade bond funds experiencing their largest weekly outflows in a year, totaling $5.3 billion, as rising macroeconomic risk inflicted notable losses on the asset class. Amid this volatility, money managers like T. Rowe Price Group bought cheap MBS following the Iran war’s impact on bond yields, seeking bargains in mortgage-backed securities. The upheaval is also causing investors to unwind equity exposure, with hedge funds bailing from global stocks at the fastest pace seen in 13 years due to dimming hopes for a quick resolution in the Middle East. In the private credit space, concerns continue to mount; Oaktree Capital Management’s chief noted excessive risk-taking, and major players like Blackstone faced grilling from Congress over their practices, while Blue Owl revealed further troubles as investors submitted record redemption requests.

Corporate Dealmaking & Valuations

Valuations in the private markets remain dynamic, with the world’s most valuable startup, SpaceX, setting a target IPO valuation above $2 trillion as it prepares for what could be the largest-ever market debut. In contrast, investor sentiment has soured for some technology players; OpenAI shares have fallen out of favor on the secondary market, with some becoming nearly untradeable as buyers pivot toward rivals like Anthropic. To reshape the AI narrative, OpenAI acquired the streaming show TBPN for a reported "low hundreds of millions," moving into broadcasting despite previous pledges to abandon such "side-quests", and simultaneously closed a massive $122 billion funding round including investments from Amazon and Nvidia. Elsewhere in corporate finance, KKR & Co. is planning a $3.2 billion tender offer to take the Japanese firm Taiyo Holdings private, while tower operator SBA Communications began exploring options following preliminary takeover interest.

Sector-Specific Moves & Regulatory Scrutiny

The automotive sector felt the pressure of geopolitical events, as Volvo Car AB reported that the Iran war harmed US demand in the first quarter, signaling broader pain for the industry already contending with high gas prices that have marginally revived interest in EVs. Despite this, Tesla reported a weaker-than-expected 6% rise in global deliveries, leaving the automaker with over 50,000 unsold units, although this still represented an increase over the prior year. In the retail space, the parent company of Saks Fifth Avenue, Saks Global, secured a $500 million creditor deal to support its planned emergence from bankruptcy this summer. Meanwhile, in the fight against AI-related disruption, Carson Block is hedging against a potential AI meltdown by betting against credit ETFs like HYG and LQD, citing fears over AI-driven job losses.

In regulatory and legal theaters, a federal judge tossed sexual harassment claims in the retaliation case involving actress Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni, setting the stage for a contentious trial focused only on remaining allegations. In Washington, the Supreme Court appeared poised to rule against the president’s birthright citizenship plan, which already angered him due to a prior rejection of his tariff program. Furthermore, the administration is facing legal challenges over its aggressive policy changes, including a lawsuit questioning the constitutionality of warrantless searches by ICE agents. The administration also scaled back its plan to dismantle the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, asking a federal court to allow the dismissal of most remaining workforce but not closing the agency entirely.

Asia-Pacific Markets

Asian stocks experienced their largest rally in nearly a year, driven by optimism that the Iran war might conclude soon, following significant prior outflows from India and Taiwan ETFs in March. In India, the market regulator is considering allowing open market share buybacks to inject support into local stocks hovering near one-year lows. Meanwhile, Chinese developers face mounting pressure, with China Vanke posting a record $12.8 billion loss ahead of significant looming debt maturities. In corporate activity, a unit of Heathrow Airport is eyeing a C$500 million bond sale in Canada amid improved local market conditions, while Brazil’s overlooked small caps are starting to appear inexpensive after foreign capital flooded into larger peers.