Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 2, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Market Turmoil

President Donald Trump's hardline speech undermined hopes for an early resolution to the Middle East conflict, causing US stock-index futures to drop more than 1% and dashing earlier optimism regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are curbing risk on Thursdays and Fridays, as war angst causes stock selloffs heading into weekends, while the President’s comments on Iran have also led to gold plunging despite Goldman Sachs retaining a bullish forecast of $5,400/oz by the end of 2026. The conflict is generating significant commodity windfalls for Russia, which is seeing billions of dollars in additional oil revenues, while simultaneously causing European diesel prices to pass $200 a barrel, a level not seen since 2022, as supplies divert elsewhere.

The escalating geopolitical tensions are filtering through global supply chains, with African nations like Malawi raising petrol prices to the equivalent of $3.86 per liter due to surging oil costs linked to the Iran war. In Asia, countries are shrugging off environmental concerns to fire up coal use as Gulf gas supplies dwindle, while India is actively approaching fertilizer producers for direct procurement to secure supplies amid Middle East disruptions. Furthermore, the war is threatening to derail US monetary policy expectations, as the conflict clouds the outlook for inflation, potentially wrecking Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s benchmark 10-year US Treasuries, which are poised for their largest monthly tumble since the current administration began.

Transatlantic divisions are deepening over the strategy, with French President Emmanuel Macron stating it is “unrealistic” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by military means, and Italy refusing US warplanes permission to refuel, adding to broader friction after Trump rebuked France. Meanwhile, satellite imagery suggests the Russian crude terminal at Ust-Luga remains undamaged following Ukrainian drone attacks, though security remains tight at US banks in Paris after a thwarted attack on Bank of America Corp., prompting Goldman and Citi staff to work from home. Further afield, the UN estimates that the war could wipe out nearly $200 billion of economic growth across the Middle East region.

Corporate Finance & Private Markets

Private equity fundraising, despite the challenging environment, saw a major success as KKR closed a record $23 billion fund for the Americas buyouts, defying the broader industry slump where firms are struggling to exit assets. This massive haul contrasts with the distress seen in the private credit sector, where Blue Owl Capital faced $5.4 billion in withdrawal requests, forcing the manager to limit redemptions to just 5% from its $36 billion private credit fund, leading to a slump in asset manager shares generally. Separately, luxury retail parent company Saks Global secured a $500 million creditor deal to support its planned emergence from bankruptcy this summer, while Unilever shares suffered a $42 billion wipeout following news of talks to combine its food division with McCormick.

In the technology and automotive sectors, Tesla reported a 6.3% sales jump in the first quarter, though this still missed Wall Street delivery estimates, as soaring gasoline prices—with the average reaching over $4 a gallon in some areas—are reviving cautious consumer interest in EVs. This domestic competition is intensifying globally, evidenced by Chinese rival BYD’s electric vehicle sales falling 25% in the same period. In the AI space, Microsoft launched a ‘mid-class’ AI model as compute limits bite, but the company’s AI chief expressed confidence in having resources for frontier systems later this year, while payments firms like Coinbase and Stripe push to build financial plumbing for AI agent transactions.

Regulatory & Sector-Specific Developments

US safety regulators are weighing a ban on specific Chinese air-bag components following 10 reported fatalities from explosions in otherwise survivable crashes, indicating increased scrutiny on foreign auto parts sourcing. On the retail front, Bed Bath & Beyond agreed to acquire The Container Store in a strategic move to address gaps in its home organization and services offerings, while Starbucks is expanding tipping and adding bonuses to boost barista pay as part of a chain-wide turnaround effort. Meanwhile, the US initial public offering market faces uncertainty, with many companies eyeing the Iran war for signs of volatility that could derail their plans, even as filings near expiry raise the risk of a wave of Indian IPOs being pulled if equity downturns persist.

In infrastructure and defense, the UK, Italy, and Japan signed their first contract with industry for a joint fighter jet project, although funding remains limited to three months pending the finalization of Britain’s delayed defense investment plan. Elsewhere, in emerging markets, Nigerian lenders successfully raised 4.7 trillion naira, or $3.4 billion, to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s new capital adequacy standards, while Africa’s largest fintech unicorn, Flutterwave, secured a microlender license in Nigeria to compete directly with commercial banks. In the world of digital assets, overseas traders are increasingly engaging with tokenized stocks linked to major US equities during off-hours trading, signaling that tokenized stocks are sweeping the globe and approaching American markets.