Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 31, 2026, 11:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Shocks Drive Asian Markets Rebound

Asian equities surged across the board as President [Donald Trump signaled](as President ( the US aimed to conclude the conflict in Iran within two to three weeks, calming fears over energy inflation and reviving risk appetite across the region. South Korean stocks, in particular, climbed sharply, led by chipmakers like Samsung and SK Hynix, as hopes for a swift resolution eased supply disruption anxieties. This optimism also propelled Japanese shares higher, bolstered additionally by better-than-expected results from the Tankan business survey. In fixed income, Japanese government bonds gained in price as expectations of lower oil prices and easing inflation concerns supported the rally.

Energy Volatility and Inflationary Pressure

The Middle East conflict continued to buffet energy markets, even as de-escalation hopes offered temporary relief. Oil futures swung wildly amid reports of a potential U.S. exit, while the most important US offshore oil grades commanded the highest premiums seen since the Covid-19 pandemic due to worsening energy-market chaos. This instability has global ramifications: South Africa slashed fuel taxes to counteract the steepest gasoline and diesel cost increases in nearly two decades, and in the U.S., drivers are now facing average gas prices above $4 per gallon, a 35 percent increase since the conflict began on February 28. Furthermore, the rising cost of diesel is directly impacting logistics, forcing companies like Unilever to freeze hiring globally for three months and prompting fresh food distributors to add fuel surcharges.

Gold, Safe Havens, and Flight from Risk

While general risk sentiment improved, certain safe havens reacted directly to the geopolitical shifts. Gold edged higher on de-escalating tensions, which lowers the perceived need for rate increases by central banks, though the metal still held three days of gains following President Trump’s comments. In sharp contrast to most global sovereign debt, Chinese government bonds emerged as a lone war haven, with yields marginally declining since the conflict began while yields on other major economies’ debt rose. Meanwhile, foreign investors fled Indian equities at a record pace, dumping a staggering $12 billion in March due to escalating energy costs overshadowing India’s long-term growth prospects, leading the Reserve Bank of India to impose FX curbs that are making offshore rupee hedging less viable for international investors.

Corporate Dealmaking and Sector Adjustments

Despite geopolitical uncertainty, the corporate dealmaking environment remains exceptionally active, with the year’s M&A tally reaching $1. 3 trillion. Private equity giants are aggressively deploying capital; Blackstone Inc. is planning a potential $500 million initial public offering for its AGS Health unit in Mumbai and simultaneously closed its latest life-sciences fund with $6.3 billion in commitments. In the credit sphere, Blue Owl Capital closed its Asset Special Opportunities Fund IX with $2.9 billion, surpassing its $2.5 billion target and confirming sustained investor appetite for private credit assets. However, some sectors face headwinds: Nike shares tumbled after issuing an unexpected forecast for a sales decline, citing snags in its multiyear turnaround plan, while Canadian subprime lender Goeasy Ltd. warned that loan writeoffs will remain elevated before business improves.

Asian Manufacturing and Regulatory Shifts

Manufacturing across Asia showed mixed results, with activity expanding in South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand, though rising prices from the Middle East conflict are beginning to show cracks. Chinese factory activity, specifically for export-oriented firms, slowed in March, as their operational costs surged, contrasting with an official gauge showing improvement. Conversely, the war offers a potential opportunity for Chinese exporters, who are more resilient due to ample oil reserves and renewable growth. Regulatory reforms are underway in Indonesia, which announced a three-year timeline for some listed firms to raise their public float to a minimum of 15% to enhance transparency. Elsewhere, Singapore is actively positioning itself as a global hub,** [*considering adding substantial gold storage capacity to accommodate holdings from other central banks.**

U.S. Corporate and Regulatory Focus

In the U.S., the technology and automotive sectors saw significant movements. OpenAI closed Silicon Valley’s largest-ever funding round at $122 billion, with the Chat GPT maker also tapping retail investors for the first time to pull in capital for its haul. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood’s Ark ETFs plan to add an OpenAI stake, testing the integration of pre-IPO excitement into daily traded vehicles. In the auto sector, GM will boost heavy-duty truck production by running its Michigan plant six days a week starting in June, while the NTSB cited over-reliance on Ford’s Blue Cruise hands-free technology in fatal crashes. On the regulatory front, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is monitoring oil futures for unusual activity, while a top official warned against insider trading in prediction markets.

Private Markets & Asset Management Expansion

Large asset managers continued to expand their presence in alternative assets. BlackRock Inc. increased its mandate from Australia’s sovereign wealth fund by 74% over the past two years, making it the largest beneficiary of the fund’s expanding alternatives portfolio. Separately, the strength in private credit markets was evidenced by Blue Owl Capital’s fund closing over its $2.5 billion target, while lenders to Solera Holdings Inc. formed a pact ahead of the software company’s debt maturities. In infrastructure, Apollo Global Management is nearing a nearly $10 billion deal to acquire KKR & Co.’s Atlantic Aviation, a major private jet operator. Financial institution Wells Fargo has become a stabilizing force in the repo market after being freed from previous U.S. punitive measures.

Global Real Estate and Market Infrastructure

Singapore’s private home prices are expected to rise at a slower pace in the first quarter despite robust underlying demand. In Canada, subprime lender Goeasy Ltd. warned of sustained elevated writeoffs in its vehicle financing division before conditions improve. Meanwhile, fintech firm Monzo Bank is shuttering its U.S. operations after failing to secure a market foothold, redirecting focus entirely to the UK and Europe. In a sign of global financial infrastructure shifts, MSCI Inc. upgraded Greece to developed-market status, a milestone following its decade-long debt crisis recovery.