Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 28, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Conflict & Market Contagion

The escalating conflict in the Middle East saw US stocks fall most on Thursday, with the S&P 500 posting its worst loss since January amid doubts over a potential US-Iran ceasefire, driving Treasury yields higher US bond market shows strain. President Trump extended a deadline for Iran to accept a peace deal until April 6 Trump extends Iran deadline, following the Dow landing in correction territory as industrial and transportation stocks entered a downturn Industrial giants enter correction. The Houthis launched missiles at Israel on Saturday morning, marking their formal entry into the month-long war that has already caused significant chaos in energy trading and resulted in thousands of casualties.

The disruption to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz is rippling far beyond energy, affecting markets for fertilizer, semiconductors, and cotton. Iran shifted grain imports to the Gulf of Oman to secure staples while the strait remains effectively locked down, an action that analysts suggest mirrors US financial policy tactics Iran using the US playbook. In the Gulf, Emirates Global Aluminium reported damage to its Al Taweelah smelter site following Iranian drone and missile attacks at the Kezad industrial zone in Abu Dhabi.

Global Economic Repercussions

The oil price surge, triggered by the war, is heavily impacting dependent economies, with the oil shock hurting poorer nations hardest due to their high energy reliance. Latin American allies of the US, from Panama to Chile, are absorbing the resulting oil price hit politically, even as they maintain alignment with Washington. In Asia, the dual pressure of rising oil costs and a strengthening dollar has led to crumbling currencies from India to South Korea as governments scramble to secure fuel priced in US dollars. Simultaneously, the Bank of Korea flagged financial stability risks due to structural vulnerabilities amplified by the escalating Middle East tensions.

Governments worldwide are implementing measures to shield consumers from soaring costs, with Poland planning fuel tax cuts and price caps and the Philippines endorsing a 50-peso ($0. per kilo ceiling on imported rice Philippines seeks price cap on rice. Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti affirmed aid measures aimed at buffering businesses and families from price hikes will not breach the country's fiscal limits. Meanwhile, the rising cost of bunker fuel has cost the global shipping industry nearly $5 billion since the conflict began, forcing Cathay Pacific to raise fuel surcharges by 34% across all tickets and review them bi-weekly.

Fixed Income & Treasury Turbulence

The turmoil in the Middle East has created significant strain in sovereign debt markets, as the ease of trading US Treasurys has worsened. Treasury yields ended a turbulent week mixed, partially easing after President Trump postponed an escalation deadline against Tehran. Separately, New York City shrank the size of a planned mega bond deal in response to general municipal market tumult and growing concerns over city finances. In Asia, Pakistan secured initial IMF approval for a $1.2 billion loan tranche from its $7 billion bailout program, with geopolitical risks cited as a contributing factor Pakistan secures IMF loan approval.

Corporate Markets & Private Equity

Wall Street is grappling with shattered portfolio defenses, leading to severe market declines, yet some commodities have seen counter-movements; copper posted its first weekly gain this month, supported by signs of rebounding Chinese demand despite ongoing conflict. In asset management, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink received a 23% raise, totaling $37.7 million for 2025, driven by the firm's aggressive expansion into private markets. Private credit funds are facing renewed pressure; Blue Owl and HPS recorded losses in February, shaping up as the worst month for the sector in over three years amidst other strains. In the UK, while many FTSE 100 firms benefited from market volatility, professional services faced headwinds, with KPMG announcing nearly 600 job cuts amid persistent economic slowdown.

Tech, AI, and Infrastructure

The boom in data centers supporting AI infrastructure faces scrutiny, with analysis suggesting that the biggest groups splashing cash may not recoup investments. Tech executives are increasingly embracing smaller operational structures, with some Silicon Valley teams shrinking to just two people—one person augmented by AI. In corporate strategy, the approach favored by Elon Musk, involving a five-step algorithm, is being relied upon to achieve stretch goals, including his push to build the world’s largest AI chip factory Musk’s playbook for wild ideas. Meanwhile, shares of the Fundrise Innovation Fund dropped sharply for a second day, extending an IPO reversal, though they remain above the underlying valuation of holdings in private tech firms like OpenAI-backed Anthropic.

Global Infrastructure & Travel

India continues its massive push to enhance domestic connectivity, planning to build 100 new airports and 200 helipads in smaller cities to boost trade and tourism, including a new $1 billion airport near Delhi sparking a construction frenzy in Jewar New $1B airport near Delhi. Travel plans across the eastern Mediterranean were disrupted, as tourists cooled on Cyprus and Turkey due to generalized anxiety stemming from the regional war. Air travel remains impacted by operational issues; Cathay Pacific raised fuel levies again, and reports indicated that due to continued federal funding standoffs, TSA lines at Atlanta airport remained long, while the White House vowed to pay affected TSA workers White House vows to pay TSA workers.

Regulatory Shifts & Political Maneuvering

Regulators are tightening oversight on specific financial sectors, with the SEC’s division overseeing private credit and hedge funds losing nearly 24% of its staff last year. Conversely, US financial officials unveiled a proposal to make it harder to label non-banks 'too-big-to-fail'. In Hong Kong, authorities are considering a "big bang" of tax cuts for asset managers, including potentially zero levies on carried interest performance fees Hong Kong weighs tax cuts. Politically, the Mongolian Prime Minister resigned on Friday in an attempt to break a protracted political deadlock paralyzing the parliament.