Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 26, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Energy Markets

The persistent Middle East conflict drove oil prices higher as conflicting statements emerged regarding US-Iran ceasefire talks, leading Goldman Sachs to lift its Brent crude forecast to an $85 per barrel average for the year, up from $77 previously, while West Texas Intermediate is now expected at $79 from $72. The uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz prompted Saudi Arabia to reduce supply shipments to major Asian buyers next month, while the disruption has already caused Australian ore miners to scale back activities due to diesel supply constraints. Furthermore, the war is exacerbating inflationary pressures across Asia, with currencies crumbling from India to South Korea as governments scramble for US dollar-denominated fuel, and Thailand witnessed its steepest fuel-price increase in decades after slashing subsidies strained by global costs.

The energy shock is proving more enduring than the administration suggested, as CEOs privately express frustration with optimistic messaging, fearing the disruption will outlast any potential resolution to the conflict. In response to the instability, Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to impose transit tolls on vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz, while a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude was recently observed crossing the vital waterway with its signal turned off. This instability is also reflected in other commodities, where copper fell alongside other base metals as traders watched negotiations, and fertilizer blockades resulting from Hormuz disruptions threaten to upend global food production unless humanitarian carve-outs are included in any ceasefire.

Fixed Income & Volatility Management

Global volatility linked to the Middle East tensions compelled several central banks to intervene, with the Bank of Korea announcing an emergency buyback of 5 trillion won ($3.3 in sovereign bonds to stabilize local markets. Similarly, in Japan, concerns over prolonged conflict pushed two-year JGB yields to their highest since 1996, as investors anticipate a near-term rate hike from the Bank of Japan, even as JGB prices have been mixed amid speculation over US-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, US credit markets showed signs of strain in March, as a New York Fed index signaled greater dislocation in the corporate bond market, particularly impacting high-grade debt more severely than high-yield.

Major asset managers are warning that market pricing may not reflect the true level of risk, with BlackRock President Rob Kapito asserting that investors are underestimating the lasting impact on growth and inflation stemming from the Iran war. This backdrop of uncertainty is causing significant turbulence in niche markets; an Ares Management private credit fund disclosed its steepest monthly loss on record in February, although industry giants like Blackstone and Apollo are downplaying broader systemic fears. In Asia, foreign investors are poised to withdraw a record amount from emerging Asia stocks (excluding , driven by rising oil prices clouding the regional economic outlook.

Corporate Dealmaking & Sector Moves

European corporate growth remains surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical headwinds, as the latest FT 1000 ranking showcases flourishing businesses, with France leading the pack due to sustained government tech initiatives over the past decade, while financial services continue to make London a top hub. In specialized sectors, Henkel AG is nearing a deal for Olaplex Holdings, the hair-care brand known for its cult following, amid a flurry of M&A activity that also includes Merck’s expected $6 billion biotech acquisition targeting a cancer drug pipeline. On the energy transition front, major bidders including KKR and Clearway Energy are circling the renewable assets being put up for sale by the French utility EDF in the US.

However, certain industries are struggling, with UK housebuilder Bellway seeing shares slump after its CEO cautioned that margin growth projections into 2027 appear "quite optimistic" given the Middle East conflict. In the technology space, SpaceX is reportedly boosting its IPO ambitions, telling investors it seeks a massive $1.75 trillion valuation for its public offering, while in China, regulators are scrutinizing the $2 billion sale of Manus to Meta due to fears of strategic tech flowing overseas. In the legal sector, filings reveal that EY set aside a record £188 million for potential fines related to ongoing probes concerning audit quality, while disclosures in the Epstein files detail law firm chair Brad Karp's actions for Apollo's Leon Black.

US Political and Domestic Economy

Political maneuvering in Washington is creating friction across sectors, as the Trump administration’s moves to ease oil sanctions on Russia and Iran drew bipartisan condemnation from lawmakers worried about benefiting US adversaries. Simultaneously, the administration is drawing fire for its approach to domestic issues, including targeting Harvard with two new investigations into antisemitism and admissions, which the university views as retaliation. In local governance, New York City’s population growth has flattened, driven by a dramatic 70 percent drop in new international immigrants between June 2024 and July 2025, affecting nearly three-quarters of US counties.

Economic forecasts are darkening as the war compounds existing issues; Wall Street analysts are cutting US growth projections, increasing estimates for inflation and unemployment, and raising the odds of a recession. This environment creates strange dynamics, such as Canada pushing to ship more natural gas to the US to support Gulf Coast LNG exports needed by AI data centers. Meanwhile, in corporate leadership changes, Dollar General has tapped Ahold Delhaize veteran Jerry Fleeman to take over as CEO in 2027, while in the struggling meatpacking sector, JBS reported a $617 million operating loss in its beef division over the last year.

Asia Market Responses and Corporate Strategy

Asian markets are grappling with the dual pressure of rising oil prices and a strengthening dollar, prompting defensive measures; the Philippines has managed to secure a shipment of Russian oil following a US sanctions waiver. India is also reacting to the energy crunch, with Indian Oil Corp. purchasing liquefied petroleum gas from Iran for the first time in nearly eight years as supply risks intensify. Despite the ongoing conflict, Indian share markets show early signs of bottoming out, with derivatives data indicating easing selling pressure, although some analysts caution that gloomy prospects may persist even after the war concludes. In corporate strategy, Nissan’s CEO is betting the automaker's future on autonomous technology, asserting that self-driving capabilities will prevent the company from becoming a mere commodity producer.