Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 2:30 AM ET
Energy & Commodities
The US waiver unlocks bloomberg.com 19 million barrels of Russian crude already at sea in Asian waters, temporarily easing sanctions as Brent oil again tops $100, while illicit Iranian oil flows ft.com continue to provide vital revenue for Tehran and allow China to build reserves. Gulf states lose ft.com an estimated $15 billion in energy revenues since the war began, with millions of barrels trapped by the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, prompting the UAE to trim bloomberg.com crude shipments for partners by about a fifth, rerouting flows to Fujairah. These supply disruptions contrast with a technical correction wsj.com that saw oil prices edge lower in Asia, even as European gas prices followed bloomberg.com oil higher on expanding shipping turmoil. The conflict has broken the decades-long correlation bloomberg.com between oil and emerging-market currencies, turning it sharply negative for the first time on record.
Geopolitical Supply Shocks
Iran has likely begun bloomberg.com laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that complicates Trump’s calculations nytimes.com on ending the war and directly threatens global energy flows. In response, the US and Chubb are partnering bloomberg.com on a $20 billion reinsurance backstop to revive shipping, though the US-centric plan wsj.com collides with the realities of the global insurance market. The strait’s closure nytimes.com has India scrambling for cooking gas imports and forced Thailand to burn bloomberg.com $32 million daily to cap diesel prices, while Malaysia’s subsidy bill bloomberg.com will rise due to higher oil costs. Iran war tests ft.com China’s strategic stockpiling efforts, though the scale of its reserves remains unclear, and the Philippines seeks bloomberg.com to review its 30-year-old oil law to gain better control over fuel prices.
Central Banks & Inflation Outlook
Economists see bloomberg.com the European Central Bank holding rates unchanged through 2027, a stark split from market pricing, as resurfacing inflation threats loom. The EU warns bloomberg.com its inflation could surpass 3% this year if Brent remains near $100 and gas stays elevated, while the UK house price outlook ft.com darkens as surging energy prices change expectations for interest rate cuts. The IMF’s Gopinath warns bloomberg.com global fiscal space is depleted for a long-lasting Iran war, limiting governments’ ability to counter an oil-shock downturn. This environment contributed to a Treasuries fear gauge bloomberg.com surging to a nine-month high as traders reassess the Fed’s policy path.
Equity Market Volatility
Sharp swings ft.com are testing South Korea’s stock market revival, with turbulence making Korean options look cheap bloomberg.com by historical standards. A rush into leveraged ETFs bloomberg.com is reviving fears of a repeat of last week’s war-induced selloff across Asia’s largest markets. In the US, Goldman’s Flood sees bloomberg.com potential for an “extreme” rally in stocks as hedge fund positioning creates a setup for a rebound after recent wobbles. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s buffer ETFs bloomberg.com face a test as bonds fail to cushion stock losses during the volatility, prompting a push for alternative downside protection strategies.
Private Credit & Leveraged Finance
An exodus of money wsj.com is endangering the private-credit boom, with investors seeking to cash out 14% of Cliffwater’s $33 billion fund and Morgan Stanley capping withdrawals. The roller coaster bloomberg.com of redemption pressures and AI investment risks is spotlighting sector fragility. In leveraged loans, the most liquid debt bloomberg.com is getting hit hardest in the recent selloff, highlighting a liquidity paradox. Yet Oaktree’s Rosenberg says bloomberg.com corporate credit markets show resilience, with high-quality debt offering opportunities. JPMorgan clamped down ft.com on lending to private credit groups as war fears initially eased, allowing a rush to sell debt ft.com by companies.
Private Equity Reshuffling
Carlyle overhauls ft.com its European private equity team after poor performance, with the US firm expected to restart fundraising for its flagship buyout fund. CVC’s Lucas says bloomberg.com its next buyout fund could set a record, potentially larger than the current largest-ever pool. Japan’s largest life insurers bloomberg.com remain keen on private credit despite growing red flags, planning to increase investment in the new fiscal year. This comes as Trafigura secured bloomberg.com a $3 billion liquidity buffer to withstand commodity market swings that can trigger huge margin calls.
Asia-Pacific Markets & Listings
Hong Kong moves bloomberg.com to lower the threshold for dual-class share listings, part of a broader push to revive its IPO market. Separately, SoftBank’s PayPay bloomberg.com keeps a dual listing on the table after a solid $880 million US IPO debut. China’s consumption start bloomberg.com to the year may be the worst outside of Covid, challenging the government’s shift toward domestic demand. Tencent and Alibaba bloomberg.com are in focus as the Open Claw AI mania spreads, with investors betting the Chinese hyperscalers offer better value than US peers pouring capital into AI. Australia’s pension system bloomberg.com, now at A$4.5 trillion, is the world’s fourth-largest and fastest-growing, with funds like Rest Super hunting bloomberg.com more US private markets investments.
Company & Sector Moves
Xiaomi’s memory and EV woes bloomberg.com handed short sellers a $1.8 billion payout as surging chip prices and weakening electric-vehicle sales cloud earnings. Rivian’s make-or-break SUV wsj.com arrives as the EV downturn deepens, priced at $57,990 with 330 miles of range. Honda scrapped nytimes.com plans for new EVs, echoing a divide between electric vehicle haves and have-nots. Dick’s Sporting Goods wsj.com reported higher comparable sales and progress turning around Foot Locker, while Ulta Beauty wsj.com expects growth to slow to 6-7% this year from 9.7% as consumers focus on value. Jennifer Garner’s Once Upon a Farm bloomberg.com fell 9.8% after forecasting slowing sales growth.
Financials & Regulatory
JPMorgan continued ft.com its relationship with Jeffrey Epstein for years after employees raised red flags, a reputational risk for the largest US bank. Bank of England fined ft.com Direct Line £10 million