Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil futures surged 3.5% bloomberg.com to settle above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remained trapped in the Persian Gulf, creating the biggest oil market disruption in history. The Brent crude rally wsj.com shows no signs of abating, with analysts now forecasting longer-lasting upheaval and higher crude prices as the Middle East conflict intensifies. Meanwhile, residential heating oil prices bloomberg.com jumped above $5 a gallon, the highest since November 2022, as the war strains global diesel and crude flows critical for home heating. In agricultural markets, fertilizer stocks soared bloomberg.com as CF Industries Holdings shares hit record highs, with nitrogen-based crop nutrient supplies threatened by the escalating Middle East conflict. Palm oil futures extended their advance bloomberg.com for the fifth gain in six sessions as oil's jump above $100 a barrel increases demand prospects for biofuel feedstocks.
Financial Markets & Banking
The Federal Reserve and other financial regulators plan to ease nytimes.com some planned rules on how much capital banks must hold in reserve to mitigate risks, with proposals expected soon. Morgan Stanley led bank sector losses bloomberg.com after limiting withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, while shares of top asset managers fell in tandem. The European Central Bank is confronting war-induced inflation bloomberg.com threats, knowing this time is probably different and it's better positioned to respond than during the 2022 energy crisis. Credit markets showed stress as leveraged loan liquidity dried up bloomberg.com, with the most liquid debt getting hit hardest in a market paradox. Private credit funds are bracing for battles bloomberg.com with their go-to lenders as major banks face pressure from investor exodus and defaulting borrowers.
Currency & International Markets
Institutional investors are buying US dollars bloomberg.com at the strongest level in nearly two years as Middle East conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets, according to State Street. The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.23% wsj.com to 95.85, up for two consecutive trading days. Brazil's government is moving to shield consumers bloomberg.com from surging oil prices worldwide by cutting federal taxes on fuel imports and sales while introducing a levy on crude oil exports. Angola's central bank kept its benchmark rate bloomberg.com at 17.5%, pausing for the first time since August after oil prices surged due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The Philippines faces the highest oil risk bloomberg.com for bonds in Asia, while China remains insulated from immediate impacts.
Corporate & Deal Activity
Amazon led a record $65 billion ft.com corporate borrowing rush with a $54 billion global bond sale as companies took advantage of calmer markets amid intensifying war. Banks including Wells Fargo, Barclays, and JPMorgan will split £83 million bloomberg.com ($110.8 in fees for their work on the sale of UK asset manager Schroders Plc. Stellantis is exploring deals with Chinese carmakers bloomberg.com to invest in the Fiat owner's struggling European operations while focusing its own investments on the Americas. Tesla received UK electricity supply approval ft.com, threatening further disruption to the retail energy sector after a decade of upheaval. Amazon's bond sale settled on a clear pitch bloomberg.com: the company is a safe bet in a world becoming less predictable.
Technology & Innovation
Microsoft took a stand against the Trump administration nytimes.com in its fight with Anthropic, siding with the AI company against the Pentagon in an era when big companies have tended to keep quiet. Nvidia struck a $2 billion deal ft.com with AI cloud provider Nebius, continuing its dealmaking spree that deploys huge cash reserves into funding its own customers. The rise of semi-liquid vehicles meant to attract retail investors could pose liquidity risks to fund managers bloomberg.com, according to the ECB's Villeroy, as high-profile names like Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone, and BlackRock have received increased scrutiny. McKinsey rushed to fix an AI system ft.com after a hacker exposed flaws, though the consultancy says it found "no evidence" that confidential client information was compromised.
Real Estate & Infrastructure
Hilton Head, a historic island off South Carolina known for golfing and its 12-mile beachfront, is tapping the municipal bond market bloomberg.com to fund a new headquarters for firefighters with $35 million in bonds. South Africa plans to expand a credit-guarantee vehicle bloomberg.com to support billions in infrastructure projects, from power-grid expansion and water systems to ports and freight rail. Democratic Republic of Congo launched its first state-backed gold refinery bloomberg.com as it moves to formalize a trade historically linked to smuggling and conflict in the country's mineral-rich east. The European Commission is considering relaxing carbon-permit supply rules bloomberg.com and allowing more state aid as part of an emergency plan to cut spiking power prices.
Geopolitics & Trade
Russia is raking in $150 million daily ft.com in extra revenue from surging oil prices as the Middle East conflict boosts Vladimir Putin's war chest, with tankers carrying Russian oil heading to India. The US spent $11.3 billion in the first six days of the war with Iran, giving the most detailed assessment yet of the expense. The US International Development Finance Corp. is partnering with Chubb Ltd. on a $20 billion reinsurance backstop aimed at reviving shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil route being disrupted. The European Union warned that inflation could surpass 3% bloomberg.com this year if the Middle East war causes Brent oil prices to remain around $100 per barrel and gas prices stay elevated. America has become an agent of chaos in world energy markets ft.com, with a succession of US foreign policy choices destabilizing the oil industry.
Market Sentiment & Investment
Commodities hedge funds managed by Ron Ozer, Doug King, and former Millennium Management senior portfolio manager Steve Barclay are the latest to have notched gains bloomberg.com from commodities volatility amid the Iran war. Leon Cooperman, the former hedge fund manager who now runs his own family office, said financial markets are overpriced bloomberg.com as stocks have become too costly relative to company profits. Investors betting on a hawkish Fed response to rising oil prices could be misreading the central bank bloomberg.com, according to Bank of America, which warns that supply shocks can also result in periods of slower growth. Bond traders have ceased to fully price in bloomberg.com even one quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year as rising oil prices stoke inflation expectations.
Regulatory & Policy Developments
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance bloomberg.com for prediction markets, asking exchanges to engage with regulators before opening certain markets that might be vulnerable to manipulation. Chicago's largest exchanges are calling for a review bloomberg.com of the process that has allowed prediction market platforms to grow quickly by listing financial contracts without explicit regulatory approval. The UK's Financial Conduct Authority warned it will take action ft.com on mis-selling of 'second charge' mortgages after finding examples of good practice but also "issues that raise concerns." The CFTC's top official said US lenders are poised to see new capital proposals bloomberg.com from regulators in the coming week. National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. has selected 20 bankers bloomberg.com for its long-awaited initial public offering.