Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil Amid Middle East Conflict
US stocks bloomberg.com plunged as the war in Iran sent oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, with the S&P 500 facing a potential 10% correction according to JPMorgan. The Dow industrials fell 3% this week, marking their worst performance since April. Asian equities wsj.com slumped with Japan's Nikkei sliding 7% as energy supply concerns clouded economic outlooks across the region.
Oil prices wsj.com approached two-year highs as the conflict forced Gulf producers to cut output and choke supplies of crude, diesel, and jet fuel. Iraq's oil production collapsed by about 60% as tankers couldn't load crude, while Saudi Arabia began reducing production as the Strait of Hormuz filled with stored oil. South African bonds bloomberg.com extended their worst selloff since the Covid pandemic as oil's surge and a weaker rand fueled inflation fears.
Central Bank Policy Shifts
Traders ramped up bets on interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England as soaring energy prices sparked inflation concerns. ECB President Christine Lagarde bloomberg.com had declared inflation was in a "good place" just a month ago, but the energy crisis is forcing a dramatic policy reversal. South Korean bond yields bloomberg.com are likely capped as the central bank prioritizes market stability over near-term rate hikes.
Corporate and Investment Moves
Netflix bloomberg.com staged a dramatic stock reversal after walking away from its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, while Microsoft ft.com added Anthropic AI models to its Copilot tools as it diversifies away from OpenAI. Cerebras Systems bloomberg.com tapped Morgan Stanley to lead its IPO return as the AI chipmaker mounts a renewed public offering attempt.
UBS bloomberg.com increased its bonus pool by 10% as the Credit Suisse integration nears completion, while keeping CEO Sergio Ermotti's compensation unchanged at $19 million. JPMorgan Chase bloomberg.com turned bullish on US investment-grade bonds, expecting spreads to tighten by 12 basis points - a reversal from its November projection.
Geopolitical and Economic Fallout
The economic fallout from the Mideast war is spreading outside the region, with Qatar Energy bloomberg.com pushing back a major LNG expansion to at least 2027 after a drone attack forced the unprecedented closure of its Ras Laffan plant. Nigeria's Dangote refinery bloomberg.com said it will prioritize supplying fuel domestically as long as it can access local crude, while Dangote Fertiliser bloomberg.com saw a substantial increase in demand as the US-Israel war on Iran disrupts supplies.
China's inflation bloomberg.com jumped to its quickest pace in over three years as oil added to record holiday spending, while Vietnam's inflation bloomberg.com accelerated more than expected in February, breaching policymakers' target range. Pakistan's central bank bloomberg.com held its key policy rate at 10.5% citing economic uncertainty after oil prices surged.
Technology and Defense Sector
European defense IPOs bloomberg.com continued with submarine components supplier Gabler Group AG's shares rising as much as 13.6% on their first day of trading in Germany. Volkswagen bloomberg.com is broadening its battery ambitions beyond electric vehicles into large-scale energy storage and trading as global EV demand falls short of expectations.
AI chipmaker Cerebras is mounting a renewed IPO attempt with Morgan Stanley's backing, while Nvidia ft.com launched a partnership with ABB for AI-enabled autonomous robots being trialed by Foxconn. Microsoft integrated Anthropic technology into workplace tools as it diversifies from OpenAI.
Financial Sector Developments
European banks bloomberg.com exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter, buoyed by trading income and cost discipline, standing out in an earnings season marked by tariffs and consumer weakness. Bank of America bloomberg.com offered a $2.75 billion loan to help fund Nexstar Media Group's acquisition of Tegna Inc.
Investors bloomberg.com are piling into US bond-market products that protect against inflation as the Mideast war sparks a surge in energy prices. Hedge funds bloomberg.com are ramping up bets against US stocks, wagering on more pain ahead as tensions show few signs of subsiding.
Market Volatility and Trading
The classic way to bet on S&P 500 direction bloomberg.com is in the options market, but Kalshi and Polymarket are now offering alternative betting platforms. Bitcoin bloomberg.com advanced as some advocates touted the digital asset as a potential inflation hedge amid war-driven oil price surges.
Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds are adding short bets on US stocks amid the rout, while Nasdaq wsj.com partnered with Kraken in a plan for 24/7 tokenized stock trading. Bond traders bloomberg.com await US inflation data with oil's rise in focus, to a series of inflation reports including the February consumer price index.
Emerging Market Pressures
The Philippines bloomberg.com companies are bracing for higher costs as oil's spike above $100 a barrel drags the peso to a record low, heightening risks for an economy heavily reliant on fuel imports. Indonesia's nickel plants bloomberg.com halted output after a deadly landslide at a waste area used by one facility.
South African government bonds extended their worst selloff since the Covid pandemic as concern mounted that soaring oil prices and a weaker rand will fuel inflation. Mexican inflation jumped more than forecasts to top the target range after the central bank paused an extended easing cycle.
Energy Market Dynamics
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright bloomberg.com sought to counter market warnings about an extended Middle East war, saying global energy supplies are sufficient and the surge in oil prices reflects a "fear premium." Russia's Sheskharis oil terminal bloomberg.com at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk resumed loadings over the weekend, bringing some relief to the global market.
The Strait of Hormuz bloomberg.com remained effectively closed for a week due to multiple factors, with another bulk carrier signaling it was Chinese-owned as it sailed through the critical waterway. French President Emmanuel Macron bloomberg.com seeks to launch a joint maritime mission to escort container ships in an effort to reopen the strait once the initial phase of the war has calmed down.
Corporate Strategy and M&A
Strategy Inc. bloomberg.com accelerated its Bitcoin buying with a nearly $1.3 billion purchase - the biggest in seven weeks - leaning again on common stock despite earlier pledges to pivot to other funding sources. IA Financial Corp. bloomberg.com is hunting for a multibillion-dollar acquisition after reaching a record valuation at the beginning of the year.
EQT ft.com took a 42% stake in Yorkshire Water, injecting funds into the utility in a sign of enduring investor confidence in the industry. Liga Portugal bloomberg.com appointed Oakvale Capital to advise on a potential stake sale in the unit managing broadcasting and commercial rights.
Market Technical Analysis
A "full-blown panic unwind" in momentum trade bloomberg.com is signaling a market nadir, with high-flying momentum stocks experiencing one of the steepest drawdowns in years. Some equity pros view the washout as potentially marking a bottom in the current market volatility.
Goldman Sachs noted that hedge funds are adding short bets on US stocks amid the rout, while JPMorgan bloomberg.com sees a 10% correction in the S&P 500 as war risks build up. The dollar strengthened wsj.com and its ability to sustain appreciation depends on the Fed's response to rising energy prices resulting from the Middle East war.