Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Volatility & Geopolitics
Traders brace for turbulence bloomberg.com as escalating Middle East hostilities and oil infrastructure damage rattled global markets ahead of the weekend. The conflict entered its second week with Israeli strikes on fuel depots nytimes.com sending black clouds over Tehran and attacks on vital water desalination plants nytimes.com in Iran and Bahrain marking a serious escalation. President Trump bloomberg.com stated a “very good reason” would be needed to deploy ground troops to Iran, while US Energy Secretary Chris Wright bloomberg.com sought to calm markets, calling the oil price surge a “fear premium” that will ebb. The Pentagon announced bloomberg.com the seventh US death related to the conflict, and Iraq oil output plunged about 60% bloomberg.com as a lack of tankers blocked shipments.
Inflation & Bond Turmoil
Bond traders await US inflation data bloomberg.com with oil price surges dictating flows in the $31 trillion Treasury market. The war-driven energy spike complicated the Federal Reserve’s path, leading to US bonds’ worst week since April bloomberg.com on inflation concerns. A surprise drop in US payrolls bloomberg.com for February, with a 92,000 job loss, further muddied the outlook. Bond investors scoured payrolls bloomberg.com to gauge the Fed, and Treasuries pared their worst weekly loss bloomberg.com as the weak jobs data raised bets on rate cuts despite oil pressures. Gilts sold off sharply ft.com in the UK on similar inflation fears from the war, fading hopes for Bank of England rate cuts.
Corporate Actions & Deals
Phillips 66 changed its board ft.com to avoid a new proxy battle with Elliott Management, drawing a line under one of the activist hedge fund’s most bitter campaigns. KKR eyes a multibillion-dollar sale ft.com of data center cooling company Cool IT Systems as the AI boom boosts valuations. In a separate deal, KKR inked a $235 million deal bloomberg.com for South Korean renewable energy firm SK Eternix. Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers ended their feud bloomberg.com and will partner to sell obesity drugs, resolving a highly public dispute.
Energy Shock & Supply Chains
US oil prices skyrocketed wsj.com at their fastest pace on record this week, with gas, diesel, and jet fuel prices climbing bloomberg.com as the war chokes global supplies. Saudi Aramco shares surged bloomberg.com the most since 2023 on the supply disruptions. Qatar loaded its first LNG cargoes bloomberg.com since declaring force majeure, and is now offering to lease LNG ships bloomberg.com as its export facility remains shut. More LNG tankers diverted toward Asia bloomberg.com as the Qatar outage cuts supply and boosts competition. Reinsurers tripled ship insurance costs bloomberg.com after a US torpedo attack, and ships in the Gulf declared themselves Chinese ft.com to dodge attack, highlighting shipping chaos.
Global Market Reactions
The Iran conflict puts the emerging-markets revival to the test bloomberg.com, dealing a blow to a favored Wall Street trade. Global funds pulled money from Asia bloomberg.com at the fastest pace in nearly four years. Colombia’s local debt selloff turned to a rally bloomberg.com on the oil surge, flipping it from worst to best performer in emerging markets. US stocks flipped the narrative bloomberg.com, beating the rest of the world since the war began after trailing previously. The dollar strengthened bloomberg.com, offsetting some war premium as traditional safe havens like Treasuries and gold faltered.
Other Notable Moves
Options frenzy intensified bloomberg.com from oil to corn as supply disruptions sent commodity prices soaring, with a huge aluminum options bet coming into the money bloomberg.com. Banks and asset manager stocks fell bloomberg.com as credit concerns persisted alongside the market selloff. Millennium Management hired four Citadel stock traders bloomberg.com in a post-bonus talent battle. China made stability its top priority bloomberg.com amid the Iran war, while Malaysia’s economy and currency remained resilient bloomberg.com within forecast safe zones. Women fund managers in China bloomberg.com oversaw nearly $1 trillion in assets as of early March.