Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil
US stocks bloomberg.com have flipped the script for international investors since war erupted in the Mideast, handily outpacing the rest of the world after trailing their global peers badly last month. Oil prices wsj.com ended the week with their sharpest gains on record, surging above $90 as the Iran war throttles supply and fuels inflation jitters. Treasury bonds bloomberg.com are heading for their biggest weekly loss since April 2025 as surging oil prices and a weak US jobs report complicate the case for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Energy Crisis
Iraq's oil output bloomberg.com has collapsed by about 60% as the Iran war means there aren't enough tankers to load the nation's crude. Qatar bloomberg.com appears to have loaded its first liquefied natural gas cargoes after the widening conflict in the Middle East forced it to halt fuel production. UAE and Kuwait bloomberg.com started reducing oil production as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply. Russia wsj.com is emerging as the big winner from the Persian Gulf energy crisis, with the turn of fortunes giving President Vladimir Putin renewed swagger when it comes to energy.
Economic Impact
US employers bloomberg.com unexpectedly cut jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose, pointing to lingering fragility in a labor market that was thought to be stabilizing. Nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 last month in a surprisingly weak report that cast doubt on the steadying job market. Gas prices nytimes.com continue to surge in the US, rising 14% in a week as soaring oil prices suggest that more increases could be in store for American drivers. UK lenders ft.com have raised mortgage rates amid warnings over inflation and energy prices as the market mood "has completely changed" following the outbreak of Middle East war.
Financial Markets
Gold bloomberg.com advanced, trimming a weekly loss as traders raised bets on monetary easing following the weak US jobs report. US inflation gauges bloomberg.com are likely to have diverged before the war in Iran, with a pair of inflation reports surfacing in the coming week after a dismal February jobs report. Bond traders bloomberg.com are scouring payrolls to gauge the Fed path amid oil rise, with a surprise in the monthly US jobs report having the potential to upend expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.
Geopolitical Developments
President Trump bloomberg.com says there would have to be a "very good reason" for the US to deploy ground troops to Iran. Saudi Aramco bloomberg.com jumped the most since April 2023 on Sunday as the Iran war entered its second week, prompting supply disruptions that may send oil prices higher when global markets reopen. Swiss voters bloomberg.com enshrined the availability of cash in their constitution, assenting to a push designed to guard against the demise of physical money. China bloomberg.com will root out wasteful spending and strive to boost government revenue, sending a strong message of frugality soon after unveiling a more modest fiscal plan.
Corporate News
KKR bloomberg.com will acquire a 348 billion won ($235 stake in South Korean renewable energy firm SK Eternix Co., stepping up its climate and environmental investments and underscoring its appetite for clean energy deals. Costco wsj.com is evaluating the potential for tariff refunds, with plans to pass on savings to shoppers through lower prices if the warehouse retailer manages to land a windfall. Novo Nordisk bloomberg.com plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on Hims & Hers Health Inc.'s platform, ending a highly public feud between the two companies that saw Hims briefly sell knockoff versions of Wegovy.
Market Sentiment
Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein bloomberg.com says his experience warns him that "a reckoning" is coming at some point amid the current market anxiety. BlackRock bloomberg.com looked like a golden age of private credit when it plunked down $12 billion to buy HPS Investment Partners, but retail private-credit hopes are now running into market angst. Millennium Management bloomberg.com hired four stock pickers from rival Citadel as the multistrategy hedge fund giants battle over talent to help manage their soaring assets.
Global Markets
Overseas investors bloomberg.com are pulling money out of emerging Asian stocks at the fastest pace in nearly four years as the escalating conflict in Iran triggers a reassessment of risk across global markets. Colombia's local debt bloomberg.com saw a selloff turn to rally on oil surge, converting it from the worst performing in emerging markets to the leading gainer as the price of its main export commodity jumped. Malaysia's economy and currency bloomberg.com remain resilient, with the country's Second Finance Minister saying Malaysia is within the safe zone of its economic forecasts despite currency pressure.
Financial Innovation
Circle Internet Group bloomberg.com and Stripe Inc. are racing to build payments systems for a world that doesn't exist yet — one where autonomous AI agents transact millions of times a day, settling in stablecoin. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan bloomberg.com said the prediction market industry's war-related contracts face growing risks and acknowledged that rising visibility brings "more money, more problems." Kalshi wsj.com wants to get more young women interested in the prediction-market platform, looking to expand beyond sports and its core male customer base.