Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Volatility and Oil Shock
US stocks nytimes.com ended the week in negative territory as the Iran war pushed oil prices to two-and-a-half-year highs and fueled inflation concerns. The S&P 500 bloomberg.com futures fell 0.6% as crude climbed again, with traders bracing for Friday's jobs report. Oil futures wsj.com rose to their highest level since 2022 as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, cutting off a fifth of global supply.
Emerging market currencies bloomberg.com slumped for a fourth day as the Middle East conflict raged on, with the Canadian dollar becoming a top pick in the $9.5 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market due to its link to oil prices. The WSJ Dollar Index wsj.com rose 1.08% this week to 95.71 as investors sought safe-haven assets.
Energy Markets and Geopolitical Risk
Oil prices made record weekly gains as the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut, with some analysts wsj.com warning that $100 oil is possible if the waterway remains closed. The Philippines' central bank bloomberg.com governor said oil rising toward $100 per barrel could push inflation beyond the 2%-4% target range.
Russia wsj.com emerged as the big winner from the Persian Gulf energy crisis, with the turn of fortunes giving President Vladimir Putin renewed swagger when it comes to energy. Nigeria bloomberg.com became a winner as $85 oil improves its current account balance, while most other sub-Saharan African economies will suffer.
Corporate and Investment News
BlackRock bloomberg.com ran into market angst as its retail private-credit hopes collided with growing uncertainty. The firm had plunked down $12 billion to buy HPS Investment Partners and crowed about the prospect of selling millions of retail investors on private credit products.
AtaiBeckley bloomberg.com is working with advisers to explore options for its flagship psychedelic drug candidate, according to people familiar with the matter. Novo Nordisk bloomberg.com plans to sell its weight-loss drugs on Hims & Hers Health's platform, ending a highly public feud between the two companies.
Technology and AI Developments
Oracle ft.com and OpenAI scrapped a deal to expand their flagship Texas data center, with Meta now in talks to take up additional computing capacity that Chat GPT maker will not use. Google ft.com gave CEO Sundar Pich Pichai a new pay deal worth up to $692 million, with stock options tied to the share price and growth of Waymo in the next three years.
Anthropic nytimes.com and OpenAI's competition became deeply personal as negotiations, threats and amended contracts left questions about their future in Pentagon contracts. The conflict with Iran has underscored the limitations of relying on existing high-end air defense systems against sustained waves of cheaper enemy missiles, drones and guided bombs, according to an Anduril executive.
Economic Indicators and Labor Market
US inflation gauges bloomberg.com likely diverged before the war in Iran, with a pair of inflation reports surfacing in the coming week after a dismal February jobs report challenged perceptions that the labor market is stable. The February jobs report complicated matters as market movements had already been choppy.
Health care nytimes.com has become the lifeblood of the labor market, with an aging population drawing workers to medical and social care, creating reliable jobs and revealing weakness for the rest of the economy. Young New Yorkers nytimes.com decided the revolution will have roommates as Mayor Zohran Mamdani's focus on freezing rent unleashed a new political force of younger renters.
Global Trade and Supply Chains
Global trade bloomberg.com faces disruption as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and airspace across the Gulf rippled through the global economy, pushing up oil and fertilizer prices. The UAE and Kuwait bloomberg.com started reducing oil production as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz affected global supply.
Asia bloomberg.com battles a fuel crunch from Thai farmers racing for diesel to Indian refinery executives monitoring the Persian Gulf through the night, with energy buyers across import-dependent Asia feeling the impact of a dramatic crunch. The Philippine International Container Terminal Services bloomberg.com continues to search for acquisitions and expansion opportunities in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia despite the Middle East conflict.
Financial Markets and Investment Strategy
Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com says stocks may suffer correction but 'nothing systemic' as Peter Oppenheimer discusses the impact of war in the Middle East on inflation, the economy and equity markets. Tiger Global bloomberg.com alum's firm bets on prying people off their screens, with Greg Mazlin and Matthew Lloyd-Thomas betting that hybrid work and AI will allow more people to get away from their screens and be more active.
Stablecoin firms bloomberg.com bet big on AI agent payments that barely exist, with Circle Internet Group and Stripe racing to build payment systems for a world where autonomous AI agents transact millions of times a day, settling in stablecoins. Kalshi and Polymarket wsj.com are each eyeing roughly $20 billion valuations as the rival prediction markets have spoken with investors about roughly doubling their previous valuations.
Regional Markets and Policy
Morgan Stanley bloomberg.com downgraded Indian stocks as foreigners rushed to sell shares amid the Middle East conflict. UK lenders ft.com raised mortgage rates amid warnings over inflation and energy prices as market mood 'has completely changed' following the outbreak of Middle East war.
European stocks bloomberg.com are set to resume declines as the dollar strengthens, with the conflict in the Middle East threatening trillions of dollars in planned tech investments in the region. The European energy price shock bloomberg.com from the Iran war exposed Europe's weakness, with French President Emmanuel Macron addressing executives from heavy industries about the challenges ahead.