Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil
Stocks slid bloomberg.com as credit stress, war fears and AI disruption weighed on sentiment, marking the worst month since March. The S&P 500 wsj.com and Nasdaq composite fell in February, dragged down by firms whose businesses might be disrupted by artificial intelligence. Leveraged loans bloomberg.com suffered their steepest monthly decline in over three years as AI-driven fears deepened, with JPMorgan warning that up to $150 billion of loans in CLOs face AI risk. Short-term yields bloomberg.com fell to 2022 levels as investors sought refuge from mounting global risks and a stock selloff.
Geopolitical Tensions
President Trump bloomberg.com struck Iran, creating new risks for a significant chunk of the world's oil supply. American military assets ft.com in the region and Gulf oil supplies are vulnerable to retaliation, with US forces locked in air-defense battles fending off attacks on American bases. Bitcoin prices investing.com fell below $64,000 after the US/Israel attack on Iran, while gold prices climbed, with spot gold set for a monthly gain of more than 8%. Lithium prices bloomberg.com and shares surged after Zimbabwe suspended concentrate exports, fueling fears that global supplies of the battery ingredient will tighten.
Tech Sector Disruption
Wall Street's quant playbook bloomberg.com was upended as AI reordered markets, with the week that AI disrupted investing beginning with a thought experiment on Substack. Nvidia investing.com prepared a new inference processor amid rising competition, while DeepSeek ft.com worked with Huawei to cut reliance on Nvidia chips. Zscaler bloomberg.com CEO Jay Chaudhry said AI is an opportunity, not a threat, for their business. Software debt investing.com slumped as AI disruption concerns triggered a credit market selloff, with tech stocks falling as President Trump ordered the US government to stop using Anthropic tech amid a Pentagon feud.
M&A and Corporate Moves
Paramount wsj.com won the bidding war for Warner Discovery after Netflix dropped out, with Paramount Skydance Corp.'s takeover expected to feature an unusual combination of investment-grade and junk-rated debt. Barnes & Noble bloomberg.com owner Elliott Management invited investment banks to pitch for roles on an initial public offering of the book retailers. Victory Capital ft.com sparked a bidding war with an offer for Janus Henderson, aiming to trump an agreed deal led by Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management. CP Group bloomberg.com planned to sell a 10% stake in True Corp., with most shares going to UBS Group AG.
Private Markets and Credit
A private credit fund bloomberg.com jointly managed by Future Standard and KKR & Co. plunged after cutting its dividend more than forecast amid lower interest rates and losses from troubled investments. Private credit's great divide bloomberg.com emerged as some saw an imminent crisis while others called it "no big deal" after high-profile blowups. BlackRock ft.com chief Schwarzman received $1.2 billion in 2025 income, standing to make more than $1 billion each year from dividends. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs ft.com joined the race to fund Phoenix's pension business, with UK pension group saying all talks are in early stages.
Regional Markets
China's capital markets bloomberg.com rebounded last year, fueled by a surge in equity refinancing and bond issuance. Swiss Re investing.com rose on a $1.5 billion buyback despite a $650 million L&H charge. Pearson investing.com 2025 profit was in line, with shares flat despite an AI push. Intuit investing.com FQ2 earnings topped estimates, with shares climbing. Celsius investing.com surged on a strong fourth-quarter revenue beat, while Novavax investing.com shares remained subdued despite an earnings and revenue beat.
Commodities and Energy
OPEC+ investing.com eyed an aggressive production hike following the Israeli strike on Tehran. Energy futures wsj.com faced volatility as oil prices whipsawed on US-Iran talks. Lithium demand investing.com was set to jump 25% as the EV market recovered, with the lithium bottom considered in. Gold investing.com climbed as investors sought safe havens amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility.
Policy and Regulation
Trump's economy bloomberg.com faced questions about whether it would boom, bust, or continue business as usual, with growth steady and unemployment low despite claims of economic strength. Tariff refund standoff investing.com saw the DOJ seek a four-month delay in multi-billion dollar payback. The Pentagon yahoo.com planned to cut ties with Columbia, Yale, Brown and others accused of "wokeness" by Hegseth. A US court ft.com blocked a landmark law limiting social media use for children, ruling Virginia does not have the right to restrict minors' access to constitutionally protected speech.
Emerging Markets
Argentina investing.com passed its biggest economic overhaul in decades, marking a libertarian win. Mexico bloomberg.com had cards to play with Trump amid reported considerations of pulling out of the USMCA trade deal. Pakistan and Afghanistan bloomberg.com edged closer to all-out war, escalating tensions in a region where economic superpowers vie for influence. Africa's critical minerals moment bloomberg.com arrived as the continent sought to turn surging demand into lasting economic gains amid intensifying global competition.
Market Structure
Stablecoin demand investing.com surged, potentially ending 30-year Treasury auctions for three years. AI turned to ft.com a new type of lending as tech groups sought more chip-backed loans to fund the AI arms race. Credit selection bloomberg.com became paramount as market conditions shifted, with Maureen O'Connor emphasizing the importance of high-grade debt strategy. The scramble for Morocco's energy future ft.com intensified as countries sought to start energy industries from scratch.