Public Markets 24 Hours

Last updated: April 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions Squeeze Energy & Commodities

Global markets reacted sharply to the failure of weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran, causing oil prices to surge past $100 a barrel and spurring risk-off sentiment across emerging markets assets slid down. The escalating situation immediately impacted supply chains, with OPEC crude production registering a record plunge as the Middle East conflict throttled key member exports, while Saudi Arabia signaled it would halve crude sales to China next month. The resulting energy shock also lifted aluminum prices to a four-year high, given that the Gulf region accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum output.

The supply disruptions are already filtering into downstream markets, contributing to higher inflation readings globally; for instance, India’s inflation edged up in March due to spiking crude prices affecting gas supplies for industry. Conversely, emerging markets are showing some resilience, as record-low inflation in these economies suggests developing countries are better positioned to absorb higher energy costs than advanced economies. Meanwhile, on the supply side, crude exports from Russia’s largest Black Sea port remain curtailed as two major berths have yet to resume loadings following recent Ukrainian drone strikes, although Kazakh oil exports from a nearby port are set to match a May record, providing some offset for European refiners.

Fixed Income and Monetary Policy Outlook

The renewed Middle East uncertainty is driving a bond market pivot back toward inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. This sentiment pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher as markets priced in the impending U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a policy move that also caused Japan’s 10-year government bond yield to hit a 1997 high. In corporate debt, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is tapping the market for a new three-part investment-grade sale as banks self-fund post-earnings, while SoftBank Group Corp. is preparing for a potential six-part bond sale in dollars and euros.

Regulators are also adapting to potential instability, with the Bank of England winning U.S. approval for a new framework providing greater flexibility to execute ‘bail-in’ procedures during crises. In the private credit sphere, however, warnings persist; the Netherlands’ financial markets regulator cautioned about potential further turmoil in the $1.8 trillion sector following issues at direct lenders, even as UK pension schemes like Nest are committing £450 million to U.S. private credit vehicles.

Equities, IPOs, and Investment Banking Performance

U.S. equities initially dropped 0.7% in premarket trading following the deadlock in Iran talks, though strategists at Morgan Stanley noted that accelerating corporate earnings are currently shielding the S&P 500 from deeper declines. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported a 19% profit jump, driven by its best-ever quarter for banking and markets, largely powered by its equities unit, whose traders posted a second consecutive quarterly record, exceeding their high by $1 billion, despite fixed-income trading disappointing. In contrast to this investment banking strength, the healthcare sector is seeing an uptick in activity, with two life science firms formally marketing IPOs to raise an aggregate of up to $693 million.

Meanwhile, market optimism for dealmaking is being tested by geopolitical risk; Bill Ackman’s closed-end fund is formally marketing its IPO, and companies like Yesway Inc. are proceeding with listings, with Yesway seeking to raise as much as $321 million. Elsewhere, Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. is reportedly considering a share sale of up to $5 billion in Hong Kong following a strong stock rally, while its competitor, Victory Giant Technology Huizhou Co., is aiming for a listing that could yield $2.2 billion.

Corporate Strategy and Legal Rulings

Billionaire Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. funded its latest $1 billion Bitcoin purchase entirely through the sale of its proprietary "Stretch" hybrid securities, marking the first time since July that a weekly buy was fully debt-financed. In M&A news, Somnigroup announced its acquisition of Leggett & Platt in a $2.5 billion deal aimed at vertical integration between component engineering and mattress design. Legal proceedings continue to impact corporate figures, as a judge dismissed President Trump’s defamation suit against the publisher of The Journal concerning a report about a birthday card sent to Jeffrey Epstein.

In European politics, the defeat of Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary’s election may ease disbursement of a blocked €90 billion EU loan, though the victor, Peter Magyar, indicated Hungary should eventually adopt the euro without setting a firm date, while vowing to cooperate with the incumbent central bank governor. Furthermore, in a significant ruling for corporate liability, Holcim Ltd.’s Lafarge division was convicted in Paris for making payments to terrorist groups to maintain operations at a Syrian cement plant.

Global Currency & Economic Strain

Emerging-market currencies pared earlier losses as oil prices retreated, alleviating some of the immediate risk-off pressure, although the broader picture remains complicated by the weak rupee, which is affected by more than just the Iran war. In Asia, China’s credit expansion slowed more than anticipated in March as household and business loan demand remained persistently weak. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the deposit insurance fund FGC is withholding a loan to Banco de Brasilia SA until the bank quantifies its losses stemming from exposure to Banco Master SA, while Brazilian healthcare provider Oncoclinicas do Brasil Servicos Medicos SA filed for court protection amid mounting financial stress.