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Last updated: April 13, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil Drives Commodity & European Market Moves

Global markets faced mounting uncertainty after US-Iran peace talks collapsed without resolution, prompting President Trump to order a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz escalating maritime tension. Crude oil prices spiked again, trading above $100, subsequently forcing Asian LNG imports down to a six-year low as supply routes faced severe choking Asian LNG imports plummet. This energy shock immediately fueled inflation concerns, causing gold prices to decline amid the supply fears, while European natural gas costs jumped sharply following the US vow to block vessels calling at Iranian ports. Furthermore, the crisis is set to severely impact UK household finances, with analysts projecting a typical family will be left nearly £500 ($672) worse off due to surging energy prices Britain faces another lost year.

The escalating Middle East situation also sent shockwaves through industrial commodity markets, pushing aluminum prices to a four-year high in London because the Gulf region accounts for about 9% of global output. This commodity pressure is already visible in corporate performance; Japanese toilet maker Toto Ltd. has suspended new prefabricated bathroom orders due to material shortages stemming from the oil supply chain squeeze. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s move to hike benchmark nickel ore prices further compounds cost pressures for local processors already grappling with the Middle East fallout. The disruption is so far-reaching that Western Australia is now actively considering establishing its own diesel reserve to safeguard key sectors like agriculture and mining from import volatility.

In fixed income, US Treasury yields edged lower on Monday as investors factored in the immediate supply shock, while Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 1997 amid heightened Middle East tensions. China’s assets, however, showed a rare defensive alignment, with stocks and bonds moving in lockstep as investors sought safer bets during the conflict. In Europe, the political shift in Hungary saw voters oust longtime leader Viktor Orbán, offering potential relief to Kyiv as the new government under Peter Magyar is expected to unshackle a blocked €90 billion loan.

Wall Street Earnings & Dealmaking

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported a 19% jump in first-quarter profit, driven by its strongest-ever quarter for banking and markets activities amid high demand for dealmakers and stock volatility. The surge was particularly pronounced in the trading division, where equity traders posted a consecutive quarterly record, exceeding their previous all-time high by more than $1 billion, largely fueled by Middle East-induced market turbulence. Despite this strong showing, the bank’s fixed-income, currencies, and commodities business fell well short of expectations, suggesting uneven performance across its trading desks. Strategists at Morgan Stanley noted that accelerating earnings, particularly from financials, are currently shielding the S&P 500 from deeper losses that would otherwise result from the broader pullback in US equities.

The high-stakes environment is also seeing massive capital raises in private markets, even as geopolitical risks temper overall dealmaking optimism. Josh Harris’s new venture, 26North Partners, collected nearly $6 billion for its debut private equity strategy, setting a new US record for a first-time fund. Similarly, Adams Street Partners LLC secured $7.5 billion for its third private credit vehicle, more than doubling the size of its predecessor fund. In contrast, the M&A pipeline saw industrial activity, with Somnigroup agreeing to buy Leggett & Platt for $2.5 billion to advance its vertical integration strategy, and GFL Environmental making a move to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure for an enterprise value of approximately $4.62 billion GFL to buy specialized waste firm.

Asia-Pacific Regulatory & Corporate Shifts

Investor jitters stemming from the Iran conflict are causing foreign funds to dump $18.8 billion of Indian stocks year-to-date, though domestic retail investors are stepping in to counterbalance the outflows. This broader regional concern is compounded by local financial distress, as India’s Shapoorji Pallonji Group seeks to delay payments on a separate $1.5 billion debt tranche, underscoring tightening credit conditions. Meanwhile, in China, regulatory action is winding down one of the country’s largest shadow banking entities, as a Beijing court ordered the liquidation of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group and its affiliated companies. In a defensive market move, Taiwan is planning new military drills to secure critical supply access in the event of a potential Chinese energy blockade, mirroring regional anxieties over supply chain security.

Technology and corporate expansion remain active across the region. Meta is expected to surpass Google as the world’s largest digital-ad player, driven by new AI-powered advertising products. In Hong Kong, regulators are attempting to ease a banker shortage by issuing 53% more IPO permits, signaling a tentative recovery in the listing market. Further afield, Malaysian chip-designer Skyechip Bhd. has finalized an underwriting deal for a local IPO, earmarking proceeds for further AI research and development.