The World Bank raised its commodity price forecasts, pointing to energy supply disruptions from the Middle East war and harvest threats from El Niño.
Energy prices are projected to climb 32% in 2026, reversing three years of declines, while oil is forecast to average $91 a barrel this year. Global oil supply is seen falling by 5.2% — the biggest decline since 1980 excluding 2020. Natural gas prices face mounting pressure in importing economies.
Agricultural producers are bracing for flooding, drought, and heat stress across multiple regions. The bank expects an 18% cumulative increase in food prices this year and next.
"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the bank's deputy chief economist. Global oil consumption is projected to contract by 2.5% this year, the third-largest annual decline on record. Metals prices are on track to rise 25% in 2026 as aluminum, copper, and tin hit record highs, driven by supply constraints and resilient demand from EV production and renewable energy.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing