Strategists see the Korean won climbing back to the range it held before the US‑Iran war in the second quarter. Lower crude prices are easing pressure on the currency, while fresh capital is flowing into South Korean equities, providing a dual boost to market sentiment.

Analysts point to the recent dip in oil benchmarks as a key catalyst. Cheaper energy reduces South Korea’s import bill, improving the trade balance and freeing up liquidity for investors. At the same time, foreign investors are redeploying funds into the country’s stock market, a trend that historically strengthens the won.

The convergence of cheaper oil and inflowing equity capital creates a feedback loop: a stronger won lowers import costs further, enhancing corporate earnings and attracting more foreign interest. This dynamic mirrors past cycles when external risk factors receded, allowing the currency to appreciate.

Investors should note that the projected rally hinges on sustained oil price moderation and continued foreign participation in Korean equities. Any reversal in either factor could stall the won’s recovery, but current conditions suggest a realistic path toward pre‑war levels.