US President Donald Trump warned that strikes against Iran might replace the current regime with another hostile government, intensifying regional tensions. The US Senate’s war powers resolution vote today could formalize military action, with National Security Institute founder Jamil Jaffer predicting prolonged conflict and economic fallout.

Geopolitical uncertainty is already affecting global oil markets, where fears of supply disruptions have pushed crude prices above $70 a barrel. Businesses in the Middle East are accelerating contingency planning, while defense contractors report surging interest in security solutions. Iran’s oil exports, a key revenue source, face potential blockades, risking further economic instability.

Jaffer emphasized that a new Iranian leadership could adopt even more aggressive policies, complicating US-Iran negotiations. The war powers resolution may limit diplomatic options, forcing policymakers to weigh military costs against strategic gains. Analysts stress that prolonged conflict would disrupt international trade routes and elevate insurance premiums for shipping firms.

Long-term implications include heightened defense spending and strained US alliances. Middle Eastern investors are diversifying portfolios amid sanctions threats, while tech firms reassess operations in the region. As the Senate debates action, market volatility is expected to persist, underscoring the high stakes of this escalating crisis.