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US 30-Year Yield Tops 5.5% in ‘Vacuum’ After Sentiment Gauge

Bloomberg Markets •
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The yield on US government 30-year debt reached fresh multiyear highs on the last day of a bruising week after a gauge of consumer sentiment exceeded economist estimates. The 30-year Treasury yield, which reached the highest level since 2004 on Thursday, rose as much as five basis points to 5.53%. It was below 5% as recently as early July. The 10-year note’s yield also reached a fresh multiyear high exceeding 5.22%.

“There’s no real technical levels for people to hang on to, and it leaves things in a bit of a vacuum,” said Izaac Brook, US rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “That allows yields to just keep drifting higher and higher.” Longer-term Treasury yields climbed on Friday even as those on shorter-term debt declined. The 30-year yield was just over 5.50% on Friday afternoon in New York, about three basis points higher on the day, while the two-year was about seven basis points lower.

“There’s too much priced in the front end,” said Monty Gandhi, rates strategist at SMBC Group. “Short-term investors are looking to buy the front end thinking that any more bearishness should flow into the belly or a higher-for-longer expression.” Short-term yields reached multiyear highs earlier this week in anticipation that the September Fed rate increase would be the first of several. Friday’s increase in long-term yields was at odds with a drop in oil prices. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled down 2.3% at $92.41.

“With rate hikes now being delivered in direct response to higher energy prices, there is no clear near-term upper bound on hikes that can be priced in by the market,” Andrew Hollenhorst of Citigroup said in a report. Interest-rate strategists at Morgan Stanley increased their Treasury yield forecasts based on the firm’s recently revised forecast for additional Fed tightening. The consumer sentiment gauge released Friday by the University of Michigan held up better than economists anticipated.