Uruguay’s chief monetary authority signaled that the nation’s GDP will edge upward in the opening three months of 2024, projecting growth of just under 1% for the first quarter. The forecast follows a sluggish second half of 2023, when output stalled amid regional headwinds. A modest expansion, while short of pre‑pandemic levels, suggests the economy is stabilising after a period of contraction.

Investors have watched Uruguay’s bond yields tighten as the central bank signals a return to modest growth. Currency traders may see the peso gain some ground if the data holds, while exporters hope a steadier domestic backdrop supports demand for agricultural shipments. The outlook also gives policymakers room to keep interest rates steady rather than resorting to aggressive easing.

With growth now expected to creep above zero, the central bank can justify maintaining its current policy stance, easing pressure on fiscal planning. Companies eyeing Uruguay for regional expansion may find financing conditions more favourable, and the modest rebound could bolster confidence among foreign investors weighing exposure to South America’s smaller economies, in the coming fiscal year and may stimulate job creation as trade ties deepen.