UN officials say they stand ready to carve a humanitarian corridor that would let bulk fertilizer flow through the Strait of Hormuz and reach growers before the planting season. The narrow waterway, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global oil trade, also handles a sizable share of agricultural inputs. Approval hinges on a political deal among regional actors, the UN source added.

Traders watch the proposal closely because fertilizer shortages can tighten margins for cereal producers, especially in the Middle East and South Asia where the Hormuz route supplies most imports. If the corridor opens, shipping firms could reroute vessels that have been idling or taking longer detours, potentially lowering freight rates and stabilising spot fertilizer prices that have spiked amid regional tensions.

Stakeholders see the UN’s move as a lever to defuse market volatility without altering sanctions regimes. Commodity desks in London and New York have already adjusted risk models, pricing the corridor as a binary outcome: either it materialises and eases supply pressure, or it stalls and keeps prices elevated. The next step is a diplomatic signal that could unlock the pathway.