94% drop in tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz signals traders betting on short conflict. Ras Laffan LNG facility shutdown in Qatar hits global supply hard, driving gas prices up 54%. 14% surge in Brent crude to $77.74 reflects muted trader response compared to past crises. Trump's strategy of a redrawn energy map emboldens attacks, but shale revolution supplies cushion markets so far.

Ras Tanura refinery halted in Saudi Arabia; Fujairah terminal shutdown in UAE. Qatar's Ras Laffan accounts for 1/5 global LNG supply, creating immediate spot price spikes. US evacuation warnings and Strait of Hormuz closure warnings triggered shipowners to avoid the area. CME circuit breaker activated as crude futures soared on Monday open.

Trump's bet appears to be paying off: traders expect brief conflict, avoiding past chaos. Shale boom and ample crude supplies explain why price surges remain below 2022 Ukraine crisis peaks. LNG chain lacks slack, but US energy independence provides market resilience for now.