The crack spread—the gap between crude oil prices and refined product values—is widening, keeping gas prices elevated even as crude oil costs fluctuate. Refiners are capturing historically high margins because limited refining capacity and strong demand for gasoline and diesel allow them to charge more for finished fuels.

Don’t blame the price of crude alone. While global oil benchmarks have retreated from 2022 peaks, the crack spread has remained stubbornly wide, meaning the cost to turn crude into usable fuel has become the dominant driver of pump prices. This dynamic reflects tight global refining capacity, seasonal maintenance, and persistent demand for transportation fuels.

Energy analysts note that until new refining capacity comes online or demand softens significantly, the crack spread will continue to pressure consumers. Refinery outages, whether planned or unplanned, exacerbate the squeeze by reducing the supply of gasoline and diesel relative to crude availability.

For motorists, the result is a disconnect: cheaper crude does not automatically translate to cheaper fuel. The refining margin embedded in the crack spread acts as a floor under gasoline prices, making relief at the pump dependent on refining economics rather than just crude market movements.