Speculative investors are increasingly betting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates again in November as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swaps are pricing about a 45% chance of a quarter-point hike by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA decision. Trading in November 2026 interbank cash‑rate futures, traded on the Australian Securities Exchange’s derivatives market, rose to over a three‑month high on the day of the meeting, indicating increased speculative interest.

The rise in futures prices reflects market expectations that the RBA will continue tightening policy to curb inflation. The market’s increased willingness to pay for a rate hike suggests that investors believe the central bank’s policy stance will remain hawkish.

Such speculative activity can influence bond yields and the Australian dollar, as expectations of higher rates generally push yields up and strengthen the currency. The market’s reaction to the RBA’s statements and economic data will be closely watched.

Overall, the market’s bets on a November hike underscore the RBA’s ongoing challenge of balancing growth and inflation in Australia.