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Senegal bond slump hits distressed levels amid political crisis

Bloomberg Markets •
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Senegal’s dollar‑denominated bonds slid to near‑record lows on Tuesday as a deepening political standoff turned the country from an emerging‑market outperformer into a laggard. The 2031 issue traded around 54 cents on the dollar, down from a mid‑February high of 68 cents, while the other two notes fell sharply, delivering a 2.5% loss YTD.

The sell‑off follows a turbulent few months: early‑year gains of over 10% were erased by fallout from the Iran war and a bitter feud between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko. A new cabinet appointment sparked a boycott threat, prompting the IMF to suspend a $1.8 billion financing program after hidden debt surfaced. JPMorgan’s data shows Senegal’s sovereign risk premium now exceeds 1,500 basis points, a level classified as distressed.

Fund managers brace for further declines, with some expecting prices to dip into the low‑40‑cent range. Investors note the country must meet a $92.5 million coupon this month and repay CFA 296 billion ($524 million) in regional markets, suggesting a broader restructuring is inevitable. The market now treats Senegal’s sovereign debt as a high‑risk asset.