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Sell America Trade Returns Amid Policy Concerns

Bloomberg Markets •
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The "Sell America" trade is resurging as investors question U.S. assets' dominance. Concerns over Washington's trade and fiscal policies, Federal Reserve independence, weakening foreign demand for Treasuries, and central bank gold buying are prompting portfolio reassessment. The World Gold Council reports gold now comprises ~27% of global official reserves by market value, while U.S. Treasury share fell to ~22%. Central banks purchased over 1,000 metric tonnes of gold annually from 2022-2024, reflecting diversification amid geopolitical tensions.

Fed independence drew scrutiny after reports of President Donald Trump's contact with Kevin Warsh. Mark Zandi warned perceived political influence could undermine Fed credibility. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.55% amid volatility, though PIMCO noted foreign demand for U.S. corporate bonds remains strong. Japan's yen intervention added further bond market volatility.

European equities are challenging U.S. leadership, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 8.22% year-to-date versus the S&P 500's 8.01%, and the FTSE 100 rising 9.72%. However, J.P. Morgan argues extreme "Sell America" narratives are overstated, citing the dollar's reserve status and U.S. market depth. Lower oil prices from potential Iran diplomacy may ease inflation pressures.