Stockholm’s Riksbank will keep its policy rate at 1.75%, the consensus of 17 Bloomberg economists, as Sweden’s inflation remains below the 2% target and the war in Iran continues to pressure energy prices. Investors focus on the possibility of a future hike, but the current decision signals stability.

Oslo’s Norges Bank faces a tighter decision. While most analysts expect no change from 4.25%, polls show a 14% chance of a move this week, reflecting Norway’s sticky inflation that has topped the target for over five years. The bank’s recent 25‑basis‑point rise marks the first Western European rate increase since the conflict began.

Both central banks signal a path toward tighter policy, but their trajectories diverge. Sweden’s Governor Erik Thedeen prioritizes war‑related inflation risk, whereas Norway’s Ida Wolden Bache confronts long‑standing price pressure. Market participants will watch the policy‑rate path updates closely for clues on a potential September hike.

Given the stark inflation split and energy‑price volatility, Swedish markets anticipate a modest tightening cycle, while Norwegian investors brace for a possible rate rise that could reshape borrowing costs for the region.