RBC Capital Markets LLC warns that renewed US military strikes on Iran remain possible despite recent diplomatic efforts. Analysts including Helima Croft note that both Washington and Tehran maintain entrenched positions, with the direction pointing toward near-term escalation. The global oil market is closely watching for renewed hostilities, particularly after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
President Donald Trump has signaled potential military action, and reports suggest Middle East countries have been warned to prepare for a fresh assault. The key uncertainty is whether any action will be a final strike before the US withdraws or a broader campaign aimed at regime change. A more extensive operation would likely provoke a stronger Iranian retaliation.
Recent diplomacy includes meetings between officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey with Iranian leaders, as well as outreach by Vice President JD Vance to Mohsen Rezaei. Trump dismissed the significance of Vance’s move, stating it focused on medical supplies. Brent crude traded at $114.42 a barrel, up over 10% this month.
RBC notes that even if Democrats gain control of one or both chambers after the midterms, they may tighten oversight of war funding.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing