Russia's war chest faces severe strain as seaborne crude flows remain stable despite a sharp decline in deliveries to India. The drop in Indian imports comes as Moscow continues offering steep discounts to maintain global oil sales amid Western sanctions. These price cuts, while keeping barrels moving, are significantly eroding the Kremlin's energy revenues that fund its military operations.

India, once a major buyer of discounted Russian oil, has scaled back purchases as global prices moderate and alternative suppliers become more competitive. The shift highlights how Moscow's strategy of deep discounts to offset sanctions is becoming less effective. Russia has relied heavily on energy exports to finance its war effort, with oil and gas revenues traditionally accounting for a substantial portion of federal budget.

Despite stable overall seaborne flows, the composition of buyers is changing. While India and China initially boosted purchases of Russian crude at steep discounts, both countries are now diversifying their sources. This trend suggests that Russia's oil export strategy may need recalibration as the effectiveness of deep discounts diminishes and alternative suppliers gain traction in key markets.