Prediction markets accurately called the Democratic Senate primary in Texas, where James Talarico defeated Jasmine Crockett by over six points. Traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket had placed Crockett's odds below 40% shortly after she announced her candidacy in December, maintaining that position through most of the race.

On Election Day, prediction markets gave Talarico an 87% chance of victory, with the Democratic primary becoming the 10th most actively traded contract on Polymarket. The markets attracted $20.8 million in bets across Kalshi and Polymarket. However, these same prediction markets failed to accurately forecast the Republican primary, which advanced to a runoff between incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.

While polls and prediction markets expected Paxton to lead Cornyn in the first round, Cornyn ultimately topped Paxton by more than 25,000 votes with 94% of votes counted. Experts note that prediction markets perform better when trading activity is high and more information is available. The Texas primaries proved challenging to forecast due to voters' ability to participate in either party's race, with February surveys showing wildly different outcomes ranging from a six-point Talarico win to a 12-point Crockett victory.