Polymarket, once the dominant prediction‑market exchange, has slipped behind rival Kalshi as operational missteps delay its US launch. A series of product rollouts missed deadlines, and its founder’s unconventional management style have provoked complaints from customers, regulators and its biggest backer, Intercontinental Exchange. User data from Dune Analytics shows Kalshi now exceeds Polymarket in global trading volume in the US.

Kalshi’s momentum accelerated after a fresh funding round last month valued the company at $22 billion, while Polymarket’s most recent raise placed its valuation at $15 billion following a $600 million ICE infusion. The gap reflects Polymarket’s reliance on an offshore, blockchain‑based platform that complicates U.S. licensing, leaving its beta app with scant liquidity despite secured permits and limited user onboarding as competitors gain traction rapidly.

ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher still lauds Polymarket’s founder as a “genius” but warns that without a functional U.S. product the firm cannot become mainstream. Recent outages, a botched fee rollout and delayed infrastructure upgrades have eroded trader confidence, prompting rival coalitions to distance themselves. Polymarket now faces a choice: streamline operations or risk further market share loss to its investors and partners.