Oil prices spiked above $100 per barrel after news broke that Vice President JD Vance would not return to Pakistan for renewed peace talks with Iran, just before a ceasefire was set to expire. The development failed to rattle US stocks, which shrugged off the geopolitical tension that had previously driven market volatility.

This marks a shift in market dynamics, as the inverse relationship between crude prices and equities ended two weeks ago when a temporary halt to hostilities was announced. Despite continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled negotiations, investors appear increasingly desensitized to Middle East tensions, with only a muted stock market reaction to the latest escalation.

The muted response suggests markets have moved beyond the immediate shock of regional conflicts, focusing instead on broader economic indicators and corporate earnings. This resilience could signal a new phase in how investors price geopolitical risk, though sustained tensions could still test this newfound stability.