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Macklem flags Canadian over‑investment in U.S. as systemic risk

Bloomberg Markets •
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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned Monday that Canadian investors’ heavy tilt toward U.S. assets is inflating systemic risk. He said the surge in cross‑border equity and bond purchases has pushed exposure levels beyond historic norms, creating a “correction hazard” for markets that depend on stable capital flows. He warned it could destabilize markets.

The warning follows a year of robust Canadian capital outflows, as yield differentials and a strong dollar made U.S. securities attractive. Analysts note that Canadian pension funds and banks have amplified their U.S. holdings, raising concerns that a sudden market pull‑back could impair liquidity and trigger broader credit tightening. The trend also pressures housing demand. Regulators may now scrutinize leverage ratios tied to foreign exposure.

Investors should monitor the implied risk premium and consider diversifying into non‑U.S. assets to hedge against a potential correction. Macklem’s alert signals that policymakers view the Canada‑U.S. investment pipeline as a lever that could amplify shocks across North America. Over‑investment in the United States now carries a tangible cost for Canadian balance sheets, for domestic lenders, significantly today.