President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva kept a narrow edge in Brazil’s national presidential race, according to a Datafolha poll released Saturday. The survey shows Lula at 47% versus Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43% in a hypothetical runoff, a 4‑point margin that mirrors the previous month’s numbers. The race tightens as Brazil heads toward the crucial October ballot.

Bolsonaro’s campaign stumbled after investigations linked him to Daniel Vorcaro, the jailed former chief executive of Banco Master SA, who engineered Brazil’s largest bank fraud. Media reports suggest the association erodes Bolsonaro’s credibility among investors and business leaders, raising concerns over potential market volatility if the senator were to win. Analysts watch for shifts in fiscal policy expectations.

Investors interpret Lula’s lead as a signal that Brazil’s fiscal reforms and climate‑friendly agenda remain on track, supporting the real‑estate and renewable‑energy sectors that have rallied on policy certainty. Conversely, the scandal‑tainted Bolsonaro camp could deter foreign capital, pressuring the real‑dollar exchange rate. Bond yields slipped modestly on optimism. Market participants now price the election as a near‑even contest with a modest tilt toward continuity.