The Andy Burnham bounce has shifted Labour ahead in three national polls, with a Survation poll showing 26% versus Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at 24%. A More in Common study put Labour at 28% against Reform’s 24%, while a You Gov poll saw both parties level at 22%. The surge, described by Lord Hayward as a "quick and decisive" shift, is largely attributed to Burnham’s policies and the absence of former leader Keir Starmer.

Professor Sir John Curtice notes Labour gained a six‑point boost in the first week of Burnham’s premiership, a pattern mirrored by past leaders. In Greater Manchester, Labour’s mayoral candidate Bev Craig is projected to capture 39% of the vote, with Reform expected at 19%, signalling a potential landslide. Reform UK remains in third place, with the Conservatives and Greens trailing.