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Indonesia's $65B Commodity Export Control Shakes Global Markets

Bloomberg Markets •
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Indonesia is overhauling its natural resource trade through a sweeping policy that gives a state company control over coal, palm oil, and nickel exports. The move by President Prabowo Subianto threatens to disrupt $65 billion of annual commodity shipments and marks the biggest restructuring of the nation's resource trade in decades.

The new export authority operates under sovereign wealth fund Danantara and targets under-invoicing that siphons wealth from Indonesia's lucrative mining and energy sectors. As the world's largest thermal coal and palm oil exporter, plus supplier of more than half the global nickel output, Indonesia's tighter export controls could tighten global supply chains just as demand surges.

Markets initially shrugged off the announcement due to scant policy details, though even officials within Danantara expressed surprise at the sudden move. Prabowo has made clearing resource wealth for domestic benefit a central theme of his administration, previously using trade restrictions to force downstream processing and lower consumer prices.

The policy lacks precedent in market economies, leaving traders and investors guessing at implementation. With Indonesia's commodities forming the backbone of global energy and EV supply chains, the uncertainty ensures continued volatility ahead.