Palm oil markets are pulling in opposite directions. Spot buyers are grabbing cargoes at bargain prices even as futures climb, leaving traders struggling to parse the fallout from Indonesia's export revamp announced Wednesday by President Prabowo Subianto. The plan covers palm oil, coal, and ferronickel, but details remain hazy about how it will reshape flows for the world's largest palm oil exporter.

Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto clarified that only secondary processed products, including crude palm oil and refined, bleached and deodorized olein, would route through a new state commodity export body. That distinction explains why spot markets are cheap while futures hold firm. Traders face a moving target as they adjust positions around the new framework.

The uncertainty gives buyers a window to stockpile at discount levels. For Indonesia, the policy signals tighter state oversight of export revenues. Any disruption to the country's palm oil trade hits global supply chains, since the nation dominates production. The split market reflects how quickly traders react to incomplete policy signals.