India's oil refiners are expected to weather potential supply disruption after the US allowed its waiver on Russian crude purchases to expire. The waiver, which permitted India to continue buying discounted Russian oil, has now lapsed, raising questions about future sourcing strategies for the world's third-largest oil importer.

Weaker domestic demand gives Indian refiners breathing room during this transition. The industry benefits from available alternative barrels from the United States and the Middle East, providing diversification options as Russian supplies face renewed restrictions. This flexibility allows refiners to adjust procurement without risking product shortages.

India had significantly increased Russian oil imports following the Ukraine conflict, capitalizing on steep discounts that offered substantial cost savings. The lapsing of the US waiver marks a shift in the diplomatic landscape around Russian energy trade. Still, refiners appear prepared to navigate the changed environment thanks to softer local demand and established relationships with other major exporters.