Strait of Hormuz traders braced for volatility as oil prices held their steepest decline in over two weeks, hinging on details of a US-Iran agreement aimed at full reopening the strategic waterway. The $15 billion pact, reported to include sanctions relief for Iran in exchange for limited oil exports, has left markets in a holding pattern. Shippers and producers, who rely on Hormuz for 20% of global crude trade, are pinning hopes on swift implementation to stabilize supply chains. Without clarity, fears of renewed disruption loom, echoing last year’s partial closure that sent prices soaring.

The deal’s ambiguity has amplified risk premiums. While Iran’s National Oil Company hinted at compliance, US officials emphasized conditional terms, creating a fragile equilibrium. Analysts note that even partial reopening could flood markets with up to 2 million barrels daily, potentially capping near-term price gains. Meanwhile, Asian buyers, long reliant on discounted Iranian crude, face uncertainty about terms. The agreement’s success hinges on logistical coordination between Iran’s port authorities and international shipping firms, a process fraught with geopolitical friction.

Investors now face a binary choice: wait for execution or hedge against delays. A delayed rollout could trigger renewed sell-offs, while rapid implementation might compress oil inventories. The $15 billion figure underscores the deal’s scale, but its real value lies in restoring Hormuz’s role as a linchpin of global energy trade. This isn’t just about oil—it’s a test of US-Iran détente’s viability. Until terms are finalized, markets will remain on edge, with volatility likely to persist through next week’s trading session.