Gold held a modest gain after former President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran were in talks to end the conflict that has fueled inflationary concerns and raised the chance of higher interest rates. Spot gold was last quoted at $4,479.84 per ounce, little changed from earlier swings tied to geopolitical news and speculation about U.S. Federal Reserve policy.

Historically, progress in diplomatic negotiations between the two nations has supported bullion, as easing tensions can lower oil prices and ease inflation pressure. Market pricing shows a modest probability of gold reaching $15,000 by December 2026, though the odds remain low.

Traders are watching for any concrete steps in the U.S.-Iran dialogue, as well as upcoming Fed announcements and U.S. inflation data that could shift gold’s safe‑haven appeal.

Analysts note that while the talks provide a short‑term floor, sustained gains will depend on broader monetary policy and global risk sentiment. The Vera prediction market currently assigns a 12% chance to the $15,000 scenario, reflecting cautious optimism.