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Factory Slowdown and Bond Spike Amid War‑Fuelled Inflation

Bloomberg Markets •
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S&P Global's latest manufacturing PMI data show factory output slipping or contracting across every region except the United States and United Kingdom. The euro‑zone recorded the sharpest drop, with France and Germany slipping into outright decline. The slowdown arrives as the war‑driven energy shock pushes inflation higher, rattling markets already nervous about price stability and eroding export competitiveness.

Long‑term yields on Group of Seven sovereign bonds surged to a two‑decade high this week, reflecting investors’ demand for safe‑haven assets amid widening price pressures. Central banks in Iceland, Indonesia, and Mauritius tightened policy, raising borrowing costs for corporations, while Egypt, Nigeria and others held rates steady. The bond market’s reaction underscores how geopolitical risk is reshaping global funding costs.

Asia’s rice price index climbed above the one‑year mark as USDA forecasts a drop in global rice output for 2026‑27, the first decline in eleven years. Japan’s banks report loan growth outpacing deposits, a reversal of recent trends, while China’s April data reveal slowing investment and consumption. Investors are watching cash flow pressures intensify, signaling tighter profit margins for manufacturers worldwide.