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Iran War Sparks Safe‑Haven Shift in $50 Trillion G7 Debt Market

Bloomberg Markets •
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Investors fleeing volatility have turned to the $50 trillion market of G7 debt, seeking a refuge as the Iran war threatens fresh inflationary pressure. Treasury yields have steadied, while credit spreads on euro‑area paper compress, reflecting a classic safe‑haven rally. Foreign markets have rallied on bond demand.

The conflict raises doubts about supply chains for oil and gas, commodities that traditionally drive price spikes. As central banks weigh tighter policy to curb demand, bond investors weigh the trade‑off between nominal safety and the erosion of purchasing power. Portfolio managers are rebalancing toward longer‑dated G7 issues to lock in current yields. Analysts warn the yield curve could flatten further.

With the $50 trillion G7 debt pool absorbing inflows, price stability in sovereign markets may improve, but heightened geopolitical risk keeps volatility alive. Fixed‑income funds that allocate a larger share to high‑quality government paper are likely to outperform riskier credit segments. Liquidity remains ample, but any sudden shock could reverse the rally.