European gas futures plunged after the US‑Iran ceasefire agreement, raising hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Prices dropped 20%, the steepest slide in over two years, with Dutch front‑month contracts down 17% to €44.13/MWh, the lowest level since March 2. Investors scrambled to rebalance positions as European power generators braced for cheaper input costs. The sharp slide erased weeks of gains in the benchmark.

The ceasefire sees President Donald Trump suspend bombing in exchange for Iranian permission for safe passage. The Hormuz corridor moves roughly 20% of global oil and LNG; its near‑closure sparked a supply shock and soaring fuel prices. Hedge funds had amassed record net‑long bets, inflating volatility as traders await confirmation. Analysts warned that any reversal could reignite price spikes.

Wood Mackenzie notes the real market lever is the restart of Ras Laffan rather than stranded LNG carriers. If QatarEnergy begins restoring output in early May, full capacity may not return until late August, while two trains damaged by missiles could remain offline for up to five years. The prolonged outage threatens Europe’s diversification strategy.

No LNG tanker has transited Hormuz since the conflict began; two Qatari vessels recently abandoned attempts. Physical traders stay cautious, watching for actual ship movements. Immediate market reaction reflects speculation, but underlying supply fundamentals stay constrained until the waterway proves open. Energy firms will monitor clearance protocols before committing cargoes.