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Euro zone June activity revised to flat, easing rate worries

Bloomberg Markets •
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Euro‑zone data released Tuesday showed June business activity fared better than analysts first expected. The flash estimate, which initially suggested a contraction, was revised upward to stagnation, meaning output held flat rather than slipping. The adjustment stems from updated surveys of manufacturers and services that reported steadier orders and employment than preliminary figures indicated.

Investors monitor the euro area’s PMI readings because they feed into ECB policy forecasts. A shift from decline to flat growth eases pressure on rate‑hike expectations, giving markets room to reassess risk premia on sovereign bonds. Currency traders have already nudged the euro higher as the revision signals resilience in the bloc’s underlying demand.

The revision also narrows the gap between the euro zone and its Asian counterparts, whose June activity remains robust. Companies eyeing expansion across Europe can interpret the flat reading as a sign that supply chains are stabilising, reducing the need for immediate cost‑cutting measures. Overall, the data suggests the region avoided a downturn this month.

Analysts at major banks have upgraded their euro‑zone growth forecasts for Q3, citing the revised PMI as evidence that the economy is holding its footing. The consensus now expects modest GDP expansion rather than contraction in the coming quarter. This upward tilt may also influence the ECB’s timing for its next policy meeting, where officials will weigh inflation trends against the renewed growth signal.