European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane warned that upcoming surveys will likely fail to clarify how the Iran war reverberates across Europe’s financial markets. The uncertainty stems from the limited data that can capture ripple effects across energy prices, trade flows, and investor sentiment.

Lane’s remark comes ahead of the ECB’s next policy meeting, where officials will consider inflation trends, growth forecasts, and geopolitical shocks. Analysts expect that the lack of clear evidence could delay tightening decisions, keeping borrowing costs lower for longer and affecting bond yields across the euro area.

Investors watching the ECB will focus on how the war’s energy price volatility might influence the bank’s stance on interest rates. If the bank deems the shock insufficient to justify higher rates, the euro could stay under pressure, while bond markets may adjust their risk premiums accordingly.

Lane’s assessment signals that policymakers may need to rely on indirect indicators, such as commodity price swings and trade data, to gauge geopolitical fallout. Until clearer signals emerge, market participants will likely keep a close eye on energy indices and import volumes as proxy measures of the war’s economic impact.