Goldman Sachs warned US diesel stocks could reach a 20-day supply threshold by August amid the largest eight-week draws in US oil stock history. The firm's Daan Struyven noted current diesel inventories stand at the lowest levels since 2003, with commercial inventories declining at an alarming rate.

The crisis stems from the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war, where only 10-15% of normal oil volumes—approximately 2-3 million barrels per day—are passing through. Diesel prices have surged 45% since February 27 to over $5.43 per gallon, with Deere & Co. already citing soaring fuel costs for sluggish tractor sales.

US diesel supplies fell from about 36 days at the end of January to just 28 days for the week ended May 22, according to the Energy Information Administration. The lack of clarity over Hormuz flows has buffeted oil markets, with Brent crude still trading about 30% higher than before the war began on February 28.