Coffee prices remain at record highs even as bean futures plummet, highlighting persistent supply chain disruptions that continue to drive food inflation. US consumers paid an average of $9.459 per pound in February, up 31% from last year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. This surge made coffee one of the biggest drivers of food inflation last month.

Commodity prices for coffee beans surged in 2024 due to poor weather in Brazil and Vietnam, then intensified with Trump administration tariffs. While futures have fallen about 17% this year as supplies improve and some tariffs lift, the impact on consumers will be delayed. Specialty roaster Counter Culture Coffee is paying 20% more for green beans this year, with shipments taking four to six months to arrive.

Tariffs are compounding the strain, with Counter Culture expecting a $200,000 hit from levies this year on top of $1.9 million in costs from 2024. Coffee prices remain stubbornly high even as broader inflation eases, underscoring the political sensitivity of grocery bills. Despite higher costs, consumers aren't abandoning coffee but are seeking more economical consumption methods at home while treating themselves to cafe experiences. Brazil shipped 27% less unroasted coffee in February as producers limited offers, further constraining supply.